The popular jury and Sánchez's announcement

MadridWe are living in such an uncertain period of political life that almost any unusual development can become credible news. And some are true. Everything that happens in the judicial sphere related to politics is part of this chapter. That an alleged case of embezzlement ends up in the hands of a jury is hard to believe. Perhaps there has been a precedent, but with little resonance. In the case of Begoña Gómez, the wife of Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, who would be the person tried by nine citizens, nothing is a coincidence. I was told that on Wednesday morning, when the news of the ruling by Judge Juan Carlos Peinado, who is overseeing this case, broke, the Prosecutor's Office was full of all kinds of comments, but with the common denominator of disbelief. Especially because no one believes in coincidences anymore.

The fact is that the day before, the Cáceres Court had rejected the appeal by David Sánchez, the Socialist leader's brother, against the decision to open an oral trial for the crimes of malfeasance and influence peddling. The Spanish prime minister's response came from New York, where he was attending the UN General Assembly. And it included a headline-making announcement that triggers a torrent of editorials. In an interview with Bloomberg, Sánchez not only defended the innocence of his wife and brother, predicting that time would prove it, but also announced his decision to run again in the elections, emphasizing the possibility of winning them—that is, being in a position to rebuild a majority that would allow him to continue governing.

The value of this demonstration lies not so much in the prognosis as in the desire to show confidence and determination, despite the obvious dangers surrounding him. Can you imagine a third term for Pedro Sánchez in the Moncloa? Theoretically, it's possible. There is no legal impediment, and there is a precedent for Felipe González's fourth investiture after the 1993 elections. On the contrary, José María Aznar imposed a self-imposed limit of two terms, between 1996 and 2004, and he will not try again in 2004. He will be burned. In fact, González confessed to those close to him that he had no desire to continue, despite running.

It was during this period, the one that separates the respective declines of González and Aznar, that Spanish politics took a substantial turn, and not only because of the ideological and personality differences between the two former presidents. For González, the Socialist victory of 1982 was a walk in the park, as was his first four-year term in office. He had 202 deputies, an absolute majority, the dream of any ruler. For Aznar, on the other hand, the path to power was much more costly and required a firm commitment to the support of the judiciary to overthrow his adversary. The PSOE, obviously, turned as soon as it had the opportunity. And it didn't need to dig very far, because the PP has unfinished business with the justice system everywhere.

This is a dangerous dynamic that hasn't stopped since. However, never for now, as we've reached paroxysmal levels. Especially because the desire to influence the behavior of judges and courts isn't limited to exhortations to act against government initiatives, whether the amnesty law or the attempt to change the paths to judicial careers. The contradictory thing is that the independence of the judiciary is so hypocritically demanded and then friends and acquaintances are sent to the institutions every time its renewal is negotiated. The 1985 ruling by the Constitutional Court on the parliamentary election of members of the General Council of the Judiciary already warned of this. The court stated that political parties should renounce sharing positions in the judicial leadership, a very clear warning: "The logic of the party system," the ruling stated, "pushes us to conduct such actions, but that same logic compels us to keep certain spheres of power and those within the party struggles outside of them."

Boomerang Effect

The voracity of the parties, which have never heeded these warnings, has led to the current situation, with a curious boomerang effect. Now the political calendar is marked by the decisions of a handful of judges, and the leader of the Popular Party relies on rulings every time – day in, day out – he calls for the resignation of the Prime Minister, citing a totum revolutum The legal cases surrounding Pedro Sánchez. As the PSOE did in the past, promoting a motion of no confidence against Mariano Rajoy (PP) based on the ruling that condemned the PP as a profiteering participant in the Gürtel case, when in reality the fall of the last PP government was the result of a broad political operation that is still ongoing. And I link that consideration to Pedro Sánchez's announcement. Can it be assumed that the alliances that ousted Rajoy from the government and allowed Sánchez to take power are still holding up and could be revived after the next elections? It must be taken into account that the PP's hopes lie in obtaining an absolute majority, but the most reliable polls do not confirm it.

Under these conditions, a truce between the PSOE and the PP is unthinkable for now. But it will have to come at some point. The true popular jury is those who vote in the elections. The degradation of the system must be halted. The two major parties that have governed Spain in democracy have a special responsibility, also for their own interests and benefit. There must be bridges between the Socialists and the Popular Party. The PP, for example, has made a serious mistake regarding Gaza. To repeal Sánchezism, Sánchez's errors must be denounced, and his support for the Palestinian population—including King Felipe VI's speech at the UN—was not a mistake, but a success. The Prime Minister of Andalusia, Juan Manuel Moreno, and some men More than a few members of the PP have been able to capture this. Depending on how the upcoming elections go, it will be the Andalusian card, not the Madrid card, that the PP will have to play.