The polls are no longer smiling (as much) on Feijóo
BarcelonaIt's well known that polls create frameworks that later end up influencing reality, so it's difficult to know which comes first, the chicken or the egg. The latest batch of polls published today by the Madrid press points to a hypothesis already suggested by other polls published before and which threatens to make Alberto Núñez Feijóo suffer: the strength of Vox, combined with the weakness of Sumar, could threaten the PP's first place and create a scenario in which the PSOE. The left would not win in any case, of course, but it would be a result that would leave Feijóo very damaged, who would be a losing president and in the hands of Vox.
The poll that begins to paint this scenario most clearly is the one by 40dB for The CountryHere we see how the PSOE, with 29.4% of the vote, is practically tied with the PP, with 30.5%, a result very similar to that of the last election. The difference with that result is that Vox has substantially increased to 16.7% of the vote (4.3 points more) and Sumar has dropped to 6.7% due to the split with Podemos (2.8%).
The survey ofThe World The poll conducted by Sigma Dos places the PSOE still quite far behind the PP (27.2% versus 33.8%) but highlights how the growth of Vox (15.9%) is holding back the PP. With this result, Vox would have over 50 seats, and its combined total with the PP would reach almost 200 seats. Also theAbc, with a Gad3 survey, less than a month ago pointed to the decline of the PP, which would win but would end up with the same number of deputies as now, and the spectacular rise of Vox. The only newspaper that presents an idyllic scenario for the PP isThe reason, which according to its survey gives it 34.4% of the votes (150-152 seats) and Vox 16.1% and 53-55 seats, comfortably exceeding 200 seats between the two (the majority is 176).
The big scare for the PP was the survey that the program released Public Mirror from Antena 3 on October 1st, predicting a PSOE victory. The polling firm Opina360 is relatively unknown, but the fact that it's a right-wing outlet set off alarm bells in Génova. According to this survey, Pedro Sánchez would win the elections fairly comfortably (30.4% of the vote and 130 deputies) against Feijóo (27.4% of the vote and 111 seats). The reason? Well, Vox had climbed to 20.6% of the vote and 76 seats. In this case, the red flag wasn't just about finishing behind Sánchez, but because it could be fueling an even bigger specter: a possible Vox overtaking the PP. This scenario is even more evident in the latest CIS poll, which places Vox at 17.3% of the vote and the PP at only 23.7% (with the PSOE almost 10 points ahead), but the low credibility of José Félix Tezanos' studies forces us to take these data with great caution.
What most polls do indicate is that the polarization strategy practiced by both the PSOE, with issues such as Gaza or abortion, and the PP, focused primarily on cases of alleged corruption within Sánchez's entourage, is causing a double effect: on the one hand, it concentrates the vote between the PP and Vox, which is exactly the opposite of what Feijóo is seeking. By waving the flag of anti-Sanchismo every day, the PP finds itself facing a competitor that surpasses it in this, in anti-Sanchismo, which is Vox.
In any case, we have a scenario in which it's becoming likely that, despite the right as a whole holding a comfortable majority in Congress, the PSOE will be the leading force. A nightmare for Feijóo, who is spending the entire term reminding Sánchez that he, and not the current prime minister, won the elections.