The plans of Puigdemont and Nogueras

BarcelonaMiriam Nogueras and Carles Puigdemont will determine the course of Junts over the coming months, from an electoral perspective and regarding the horizon for crafting the national alternative, respectively. In three weeks, the Spanish elections will be held, in which the work done in Madrid by the Junts leader will be put to the test, and immediately after, the president's long-awaited return will take place, which the pro-independence party hopes will serve as the necessary catalyst to turn around the Catalan political landscape, which has been conditioned until now by the growth of the far-right pro-independence movement. What will Puigdemont do and what will Nogueras do?

When he returns from exile, the former President of the Government will travel the country from end to end, just as has been said for months. The intention is to grasp firsthand the needs of the country, from which he has been forcibly distanced for nine years. And, although he could bring forward his return, he avoids the election period to grant more solemnity to the moment. Within Junts, it is expected that he will finally take the step forward to be the candidate in the next Catalan elections. A decision that, as ARA has confirmed, he will only take if he considers it the optimal scenario. But it escapes no one that he will receive pressure along the way: the bulk of the leadership and Junts in general is eager for him to end up assuming this role to face, a priori in 2028, Salvador Illa, Oriol Junqueras, and Sílvia Orriols at the polls.

The position of leader of the opposition has already been ruled out by him, although there were leaders who had recommended he exercise it, according to various sources. "I could not act as such, but, on the other hand, even if I could, it seems to me that it is not correct for someone who has been president of the Generalitat and has occupied the presidency, which is an institution, to then have to control the president, whoever they may be," he said in a recent interview on La 2 Cat.

Thus, the starting scenario for Junts is to keep the position vacant, as it has done since the beginning of the term. There are leaders, especially from the local level, who want someone to hold this position – today the highest positions in the Catalan chamber are held by Mònica Sales and Salvador Vergés –. Whether or not he maintains his parliamentary seat is also not a decision taken or communicated.

In the short term, naturally Puigdemont wants to preserve "the institutional profile" to separate his return from the partisan battle of November 29th. And this will also be seen in this campaign, in which he will have a profile that will not enter into the fray and his participation will be minimal for what it means to be the president of a party. This means that, from a distance, he will be able to intervene in the opening, central, and closing events. A much smaller role than in other campaigns. Nogueras will be the absolute protagonist. "He does not want to mix the return with a party option, but rather a country one," stress sources consulted. At the same time, the one who will be involved in the campaign in favor of Nogueras will be former president Artur Mas, as ARA has been able to learn. Specifically, he will present her at a conference, which will allow for the exhibition of convergent harmony.

"The work done"

Nogueras enjoys the support of the bulk of the party, as well as the local sphere, who often thank her for the resolution of problems that have been stalled for decades thanks to the decisive force she has led in Madrid. She also has the support of Mas and the convergent gene. With the useful policy of Junts' seven votes, all the many leaders see in Nogueras the great protagonist of the ideological realignment towards a "center profile" with center and center-right policies, with a socioliberal nature that has been reflected in numerous votes, such as the rejection of the Spanish government's housing decrees.

Junts will present "the work done" as an electoral claim: the law against multi-recidivism, the ALS law, the amnesty, the Catalan language in the Courts, as well as fiscal measures and tax reforms that they have stopped: in the labor field, the opposition to the reduction of the working day – which they believed put SMEs at risk–. And, thinking about the future, they will now focus on the economic agreement and the gain in sovereignty in other folders such as Rodalies, just as Nogueras has expressed publicly. If there is the opportunity to be decisive again to elect a socialist president, Junts will value it as long as the "Catalan agenda" is prioritized and Pedro Sánchez steps aside. With the PP, linked to Vox, Junts sees it as unacceptable to agree to an investiture, even if they have coincided with the Popular Party and Vox on numerous occasions during the legislature.

The political board

Be that as it may, with the return of Puigdemont, Junts intends to "overturn" the Catalan political board, currently conditioned by the pro-independence far-right, which even threatens to dispute the position of first force with the PSC. The strengthening of a currently very weakened pro-independence bloc is expected, returning to "bring people together" and reinforcing Junts as the central space. A "revulsive" in the face of a poisoned landscape, thanks to the presence of Puigdemont in the day-to-day life throughout the Principality, which may contribute to a change of pace, according to various voices. Before the return, there will be the evaluation by Nogueras, combined with the new state scenario, which could be a government of the PP with Vox.