The king, the government, and the political struggle
MadridThis past Christmas has been marked by official speeches full of good intentions and calls for dialogue, but also by parallel declarations that have had little or no resonance with these kinds of aims. We are ending the year still grappling with the results of the regional elections in Extremadura, and we face another in which Aragon, Castile and León, and Andalusia will complete the picture. The big question is whether this cycle will translate into the beginning of a new political era and whether the PP and Vox will truly be its main protagonists, or whether what was once described as a progressive alliance will be able to withstand the pressure.
That pact was limited to the investiture of Pedro Sánchez, and the supposed wall built around his government has, over time, become a defensive structure with many cracks. But the fact remains that it hasn't collapsed. However, given the results of the Extremadura elections, no one would say that the main bulwark, the Socialists, are in a position to withstand many more attacks. Their morale is—and rightly so—sickened, and they disagree on the strategies to follow. But the main tower, the Moncloa Palace, at the heart of the power structures, remains, and has no desire to surrender. The battle, in short, continues.
As for the general elections, for now, there's no talk. On the contrary, Vice President María Jesús Montero has explained that she has finalized the draft of the 2026 State Budget, having made contact with several parties and intending to present it to Congress. The question remains whether this proposal will be put to a vote, given that there is little, if any, chance of its approval. This operation will probably serve to carry out legitimate propaganda actions, although difficult to translate into practical terms. The government will explain the benefits of its initiative, showcase—the opposition will say it has spread out a blanket—of social spending plans, and ask who, and with what intentions, will be able to prevent its implementation. A message directed not exclusively at the so-called moderate right and the one deemed extreme, but also at long-term partners and those of circumstance, so that everyone has to take a stand.
The new financing
I don't know, frankly, if these kinds of strategies are going to be very effective. We'll have debate and noise, but I'd say few practical results. People value and appreciate social welfare programs. But especially when they're implemented, more so than when they're just designed and presented. However, the government has another bait ready for the next act of this legislative session. It's the proposed new system of regional financing. Some think that this will unnecessarily complicate the Socialists' lives, because Vice President Montero is the candidate for the presidency of Andalusia, a role incompatible with that of an effective negotiator of the distribution of funds among the autonomous communities.
However, once again, politics has moments that resemble sleight of hand when they include an unexpected audience member joining the performance. It's not hard to imagine Montero pulling gold coins—or chocolate ones wrapped in gold foil—out of the noses or behind the ears of the PP's Economy Ministers, obedient to their party's mandate to reject any offer coming from the hands of the Sánchez administration.
The worst risk, from Catalonia's perspective, is that this charade will be poisoned once again. I'm referring to the possibility that the discussion will once again revolve around potential concessions to Catalonia's demand for a unique financing system. The day will come when this demand will be seriously debated, but I don't know if the conditions are right now to achieve it. I'm not talking about obtaining this type of solution, but simply about having a calm debate. The President of the Generalitat, Salvador Illa, and ERC, who agreed on objectives in this area, will have to defend them. I don't rule out progress towards a model and structure for a Catalan Tax Agency, though I remain to wonder to what extent it will be fully autonomous.
There are issues where the potential decision to make a virtue of necessity will always encounter strong resistance. Many socialists, especially those from the older generations, are convinced that the electoral debacle they suffered in Extremadura is not solely the result of the schemes and episodes of corruption that have permeated and colonized the party, but rather of a loss of confidence and widespread social discontent. This anger is related to a wide variety of causes, including relations with the pro-independence parties, even though these parties may feel they have gained little this legislative term. One only needs to have listened to former Extremaduran president Juan Carlos Rodríguez Ibarra, a prominent figure in the regional campaign, to see that politics in that region has always had not only one eye on Catalonia, but a certain fixation, sometimes obsessive.
Felipe VI's speech
With this background, we arrive at the next stage, 2026. And at this point, I think it's worthwhile to note some passages from the speech given by Felipe VI on Christmas Eve. The King again mentioned the Transition, saying that it was above all "a collective exercise in responsibility," as an expression of a "shared will to build a future of freedoms based on dialogue." He added that "that courage—to move forward without guarantees but united—is one of the most valuable lessons" of that experience.
In the coming years—and not only in 2026—these kinds of goals and strategies will be important for Catalonia. Pope Leo XIV conveyed similar messages on a global scale the following day and sent a special greeting to Christians living in the Middle East, aware of their "feeling of powerlessness in the face of the power dynamics that overwhelm them." Shortly afterward, Trump announced a military strike against targets of the terrorist group Islamic State in Nigeria, for its continued killings of "innocent Christians." I am reminded of the Pope's message when he reaffirmed, this time referring to Ukraine, "the courage to engage in sincere, direct, and respectful dialogue."
