The electoral horizon, in the fall of 2026

MadridGiven how events have unfolded, several hypotheses are once again being discussed regarding the end of this legislative term. The Spanish government has been confronted with two additional fronts that it has thus far been unable to control. On the one hand, there is corruption, with a constant stream of news reports about actions by police forces or judges trying to get to the bottom of several ongoing investigations, especially regarding the business dealings of the Cerdán-Ábalos-Koldo network. On the other hand, there are the accusations from women of harassment by PSOE leaders. The problem for the Socialists, in both cases, is that they have failed to react in time. They tell us that once specific cases were detected, they acted diligently. But the truth is that they acted belatedly, and decisively only when the matter had already become public knowledge through media reports.

However, the president of the Center for Sociological Research (CIS), José Félix Tezanos, has just informed us that the PSOE would win the elections with a nine-point lead over the PP if the elections were held now. This is a rather risky prediction, considering that the data collection took place after Ábalos had already been imprisoned and after the former director of Analysis and Studies for the Spanish Prime Minister's Office, Paco Salazar, had been accused of sexist behavior by two women who had worked on his team. The poll places the PSOE's projected vote share at 31.4 percent, while the PP's is projected at 22.4 percent. We already know that the PP faces a significant challenge from Vox, which would drop 1.2 points and obtain 17.6 percent of the vote. It's understandable that Feijóo can't or won't believe it, but these predictions must be very discouraging for him, especially since he and his party are constantly calling for elections.

For Pedro Sánchez, on the other hand, predictions of this kind provide a psychological refuge. Another person wouldn't have been able to get this far in a legislature like the current one. This Monday he has a press conference to review his term, which has generated understandable expectations, but it's unlikely that any significant announcements will be made. There's a desire to recover without a complete government reshuffle, partly because such an operation isn't easy to improvise over a weekend. In any case, it's noteworthy that this year a meeting that traditionally takes place at Moncloa Palace in the last week of December has been brought forward. Why the early announcement? Could it be that Sánchez wants to have days off for New Year's Eve to meet with people and consider the initiatives he needs if he wants to attempt a relaunch of activity in January? Following the morning press conference, the traditional Christmas reception with the media will be held this afternoon at the same palace. It remains to be seen whether this second event will yield further information about what was left unfinished this morning.

In a situation like this, with the party clearly demoralized, the last thing the PSOE can do is go on vacation without any intention of making amends. The combination of corruption scandals with their demonstrated passivity, if not outright cover-up, in the face of harassment or aggressive and sexist treatment of women who have reported it, is very serious because it affects essential pillars of any organization's activity. This is especially true when the observed conduct contradicts the principles, the electoral program, and the commitments of a party that proclaims intolerance regarding the actions of corrupt individuals and the utmost sensitivity to guaranteeing the protection of fundamental rights. A political force that defines itself as feminist and a staunch defender of the right to equality cannot condone cases like that of Paco Salazar. For Sánchez himself, it must be very disappointing and unacceptable to see how some of the leaders he had placed in positions of power and close influence have failed him again.

Naturally, Feijóo continues to use this proximity to direct all his criticism at the person and actions of the Socialist leader. The PP's tragedy is that they can say and shout all they want, but as long as they cannot form a majority to bring about a motion of no confidence, their voice will only be heard by the convinced, but without any effect that will bring them closer to another election. The bet that could now be made is to conclude that if the situation doesn't change or, worse still, if it continues to worsen in the coming months, the logical thing would be to hold elections in October or November 2026, without waiting for the end of a legislature that could be even more agonizing. The PSOE will have an opportunity if the PP doesn't obtain the majorities it seeks in the announced regional elections. First will be Extremadura, on December 21st; Then Aragon, in February; Castile and León, in March; and Andalusia, in June.

The PP's lack of allies

In 2023, the territorial pacts between the PP and Vox were a gift to Sánchez, who used them extensively to mobilize the votes of those who fear a PP government beholden to the far right. For this very reason, it would make sense for the PSOE to try to buy time and put on a good face every time they are denied a vote in Congress, hoping that the PP will fail to extricate itself from the labyrinth of its relationship with Vox. It must be agonizing for Feijóo to witness the parliamentary reality every day. The Popular Party complains that the PSOE is losing allies. However, if we look closely, it is precisely the PP that is in the worst position. The government will struggle to pass laws and decrees. The PP, on the other hand, struggles with everything, because the only thing that would help them is having allies for a motion of no confidence. And it is obvious that they do not have them.

The government's partners are not helping the PSOE win votes, but they are preventing it from collapsing, and that is now the most important thing for the Socialists. The only vote of no confidence Feijóo can console himself with is the one indirectly presented by some judges through rulings like the one that disqualified the former head of the Public Prosecutor's Office, Álvaro García Ortiz. The problem for the PP is that the downfall of an attorney general can do a lot of damage to a government, but it does less if the arguments for the conviction show a lack of objective evidence and a conclusion of guilt based on assumptions.