The counteroffensive of Pedro Sánchez and Salvador Illa

MadridAfter a summer that has given rise to much speculation about the resumption of political activity, we have witnessed a certain effort by the government to try to regain the initiative and counter the ongoing offensive by an opposition whose sole objective is to call general elections. Naturally, this attempt by the Socialists required taking concrete steps, initially in parliament and in the media. The outlook in Congress remains uncertain and complicated. But in recent weeks, contacts have been made that suggest there is room to continue pedaling and seek support for the budgets of the parties that made Pedro Sánchez's investiture possible. In the interview on Spanish National Television (TVE) with Pepa Bueno, the Prime Minister made it clearer than ever that the draft budget will be sent to the House and that, therefore, this time, no prior guarantee from the party members will be required to formalize the initiative. If the PSOE wanted to regain ground and maintain some control over the political agenda, a decision of this nature was necessary. We'll see later whether the judges and indictments that directly affect the government will allow the debate to focus on this issue. But, for now, it's the most important step due to its significance for continuing the legislature.

Before the summer, the PP toyed with the idea that it had Sánchez on the ropes and was one step away from disaster, due to the revelations in the indictment of his former collaborators Cerdán, Ábalos, and Koldo García. But the alliance that had allowed the first two years of the legislature to be covered held. With this impression that the situation was still very open, the country went on vacation. It needed to find a catalyst. Of course, the events of August, with the tragic focus on the forest fires and the controversies over immigration, generated a negative scenario that brought us back closer to feelings of systemic crisis. Pedro Sánchez and Salvador Illa surely pondered this puzzle in their talks in Fuerteventura. The effort to move forward in the area of communications, the offer of debt forgiveness to the autonomous communities, and Isla's visit to Puigdemont last Monday are part of this relaunching strategy to refocus the political debate on specific issues of relevance.

Pepa Bueno's interview with Sánchez touched on all the issues, with respect but without concessions. The Socialist leader usually gets off lightly, both in front of the cameras and on the floor of Congress. But in this second half of the legislature—which we will see if it can actually be completed—he faces a particularly difficult time. The opening ceremony of the judicial year last Friday confirmed the discontent of the conservative sectors of the judiciary, who hold a vast majority in the race. On this front, the government cannot expect any kind of breathing space. On the contrary. The Attorney General, Álvaro García Ortiz, did well to attend the event and present the Prosecutor's Office's assessment of the previous year. But, with his case now on the verge of being referred to trial, it's hard to imagine he'll be acquitted without further ado. However, he's right to defend the presumption of innocence in his case.

The Attorney General's Case

Those who have now demanded that he not attend the event would have been the first to interpret his absence as a clear sign of his admission of guilt. Be that as it may, it can also be assumed that if he is convicted of any kind, it will be in a ruling with dissenting votes. This was already seen at the end of July, when the decision to reject the Attorney General's appeal against his prosecution was met with a dissenting vote by Judge Andrés Palomo. This judge argued that the attribution to García Ortiz of the leak of the email in which the defense of businessman Alberto González Amador, partner of Madrid President Isabel Díaz Ayuso, admitted to the commission of two tax offenses by his client "does not appear sufficiently justified." I highlight this case because I continue to wonder whether there is proportionality between the alleged crime attributed to the Attorney General—that of revealing secrets about negotiations related to tax fraud—and the effort to obtain evidence that has remained unconfirmed.

"Whoever can do, let them do." This phrase by former President José María Aznar remains the main possible explanation for the current state of clashes between branches of government, specifically between the government and a significant portion of the judiciary. In this context, with the appeals for amparo filed by the leaders of the process for the non-application of the amnesty law pending resolution in their case, what should we make of the handling of this issue in Isla's interview with his predecessor, Carles Puigdemont, at the headquarters of the Generalitat (Catalan government) in Brussels? The question probably seems to be oriented toward the granting of amparo, but without absolute certainty or a timeline. For the moment, the arrest warrant for Puigdemont in Spain will not be lifted.

Juntos offers no guarantee that this interview has served to reestablish closer collaboration. The government has already replaced Santos Cerdán for regular contacts with the regional council members—in which José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero plays a leading role—apart from those in Congress. But it has been left to the PSOE to announce this reshuffle of teams, when it sees fit. The fact is that the dialogue continues, but without concrete agreements. Juntos still sees some important government initiatives, such as the reduction of the working day, as unfinished business. For Sumar, it is essential that the proposal prosper, and it is not easy for Puigdemont's party to change its mind about the project being poorly constructed. In short, the Socialists face a complicated new parliamentary term ahead. While waiting to see whether the attempted relaunch this first week of September can be successful, the fact is that Sánchez and Illa have shown a willingness to take initiative and some leeway to regain an independent presence, that is, one untethered from the criticisms and demands of the opposition. This counteroffensive is already a step forward, compared to the PP's difficulties in preventing Vox from gaining ground in the polls.