The autumn that will determine the viability of Pedro Sánchez and Salvador Illa

BarcelonaSalvador Illa had planned to deliver a joint reply to all groups in the general policy debate, but Albert Batet's intervention changed his mind. The leader of the Catalan regional government's group in the Parliament had compared the president of the Catalan government to Donald Trump and had again demanded that he sign the Brussels Agreement he had signed with the PSOE. Isla took the floor to rebuke him for the comparison with the president of the United States, but also to reiterate that the pacts that challenge the Catalan socialists are those that emerge from the Parliament. A way of trying to neutralize Junts' demand. However, for the regional government's members, the fact that the PSC has not embraced the Brussels Agreement weighs heavily on the scales they must weigh if they ultimately decide to break with the PSOE. A decision the party has promised to make this fall.

Once the plenary session ended this week, the Junts deputies were cryptic when it came to explaining what their next move would be. "Step by step," they assure, without revealing when a decision will be made. "It won't be immediate," another source asserts. What they do express is their anger at the Socialists' position in the plenary session, as they voted against taking the referendum to the negotiating area in Switzerland and also against the economic agreement, as well as not endorsing the transfer of immigration powers from the Generalitat (the Socialists asked to remove the mention of "the anti-Illegible attitude" in the absence of an agreement). The red button to withdraw support for Pedro Sánchez lies with former President Carles Puigdemont, but he will first have to discuss it with both the party's permanent committee (which meets weekly) and the full executive branch, which has no meetings scheduled for now.

The pending agreements

The underlying reason why Junts is considering withdrawing support for the PSOE is that they believe that, two years into the legislative pact, they have little left to lose. The transfer of immigration powers has already failed due to Podemos's veto, and this week, the Constitutional Court, despite admitting Puigdemont's appeal for protection over the non-application of his amnesty, rejected the precautionary measures to immediately withdraw the arrest warrant in Spain. Furthermore, the official status of Catalan in the European Union is still pending, something that is dragging on even before the investiture. When will the "things" announced in the fall happen? Or what will be the "consequences," in the words of Junts spokesperson Mònica Sales, of the general policy debate?

The point is that between now and December 21, there are several dates circled on the calendar that could either steer or completely ruin the relationship with the Socialists. On October 21, there is another meeting of the General Affairs Council of the European Union, at which Spain could make a gesture and try to force a return to the debate on Catalan. Right now, this is not planned, as the only issues to be discussed are the next European budget, a legislative proposal to reduce bureaucracy, and Hungary's compliance with EU law, among other things. Within the framework of these negotiations, the Spanish government could play with Catalan as a counterbalance, but it is difficult to overcome the reluctance of other states, especially Germany.

In the last joint appearance between Sánchez and Prime Minister Friedrich Merz, the German entrusted the introduction of official Catalan in the EU to artificial intelligence, as one of his arguments against it is the additional cost of translators. The other opportunities for this issue in Europe will be on November 17 and December 16, reports Gerard Fageda.

The other key issue is Puigdemont's return. The president of the Constitutional Court, Cándido Conde-Pumpido, has already warned that his appeal will be unlikely to be resolved. "before Christmas", Therefore, the former president's eventual return, not counting any delays the Supreme Court may add, would be in the spring if the Constitutional Court rules in his favor. However, before that, for Junts, there is an important date before then, to also gauge its support for the PSOE, and that is when the Constitutional Court rules on the precautionary measures heard by the parties regarding the withdrawal of the arrest warrant.

That is to say: although this week the Constitutional Court rejected the immediate withdrawal of the arrest warrant, it must rule again before issuing the final sentence after hearing the arguments for or against from the Prosecutor's Office, the State Attorney's Office, the public prosecutor's office, and the public prosecutor's office. What will the Prosecutor's Office and the Attorney's Office say? If they rule in favor of granting the precautionary measures, it would also be a gesture toward the judiciary, although sources from the Constitutional Court have always said they will not endorse it because it would be preempting the substance of the matter, reports Ot Serra. It must be taken into account that what is under discussion is whether or not the amnesty law is applied to Puigdemont and lifting the arrest warrant would be applying de facto, opening a clash with the Supreme Court.

In this week's debate, Isla warned the regional council members about the alternative to a coalition government in the Spanish state: "I think a government led by Pedro Sánchez is better for Spain and Catalonia than other alternatives that I believe would be very bad for Catalonia and for Spain." The Socialist president was thus responding to the Junts leader in the Parliament, Albert Batet, who had accused him of not defending Catalonia's interests before the Spanish government due to Isla's close relationship with Sánchez. A relationship that the PSC leader confirmed and boasted about as a positive asset for Catalonia. In fact, Illa tried to wink at the regional council members in his speech on Tuesday, when he opened it with a tribute to the exiled deputies, Carles Puigdemont and Lluís Puig.

Will Illa pressure Sánchez?

As the gap with Junts widens, Isla is putting pressure on him with ERC, with whom he implicitly forms a clampdown to pressure the PSOE to comply with the agreement for a unique financing option. The president, in fact, is the weak link in an agreement that allowed him access to the Palau de la Generalitat, but whose fulfillment does not depend on him. In fact, in the vote on the resolution proposals, the Socialists endorsed promoting the legislative reforms necessary to legally protect the Catalan Tax Agency (ATC) "before the end of the year." That is, they endorsed ERC's approach to begin activating the collection of personal income tax (IRPF) through the 2028 tax year. A path the PSOE does not share.

The socialist president is the main party interested in the agreement going ahead, but he is also unwilling to put more pressure on Pedro Sánchez than necessary because he understands the situation in the state is delicate. Now, without a financing proposal that aligns with the investiture agreement, the president risks running midway through the term with two extended budgets and surviving on Pere Aragonès's 2023 accounts. The government would have to face its second year of legislature with additional credit, a scenario it had previously hoped for.

In the coming weeks, First Vice President and Minister of Finance María Jesús Montero is expected to present her proposal to reform the entire regional financing system. This reform should include the investiture agreement, but also combine the interests of the other autonomous communities. The question is whether the proposal will guarantee the principle of ordinality that was included in the agreement to make Salvador Illa president, but which was dropped from the document signed between the Spanish and Catalan governments after the Bilateral Commission.