Sánchez's strategy to increase military spending without reducing social spending

MadridIncrease military spending without it being detrimental to social spending. This is the premise that can unblock the disagreements between the PSOE and Sumar over the defence budget, which the Spanish government is committed to raising to 2% of GDP in the coming years. In a meeting on Tuesday that lasted two hours between Pedro Sánchez and the second vice president, Yolanda Díaz, the president conveyed these two objectives: to fulfil the commitment with NATO and for this not to harm social spending. The question is still how he will do it.

The meeting took place with "naturalness" and "good atmosphere", according to the Spanish president's team. Sánchez has told Díaz that he maintains the intention to reach 2% of GDP in military spending, a figure that in recent days has been proposed to be reached before 2029, the year to which Spain had committed to NATO. However, this Tuesday the spokeswoman for Moncloa, Pilar Alegría, has avoided going further and has limited herself to saying that the global debate on rearmament must be "joint at European level" and has not gone into details. Next week Sánchez will participate in a European Council to address this issue and will appear in Congress to report on it on Wednesday, March 26.

From Brussels, the Minister of Economy, Carlos Cuerpo, has assured that the Spanish government will accelerate the pace of the increase in military spending despite the fact that new accounts are not approved for 2025. What formulas are there? The most likely thing is that the budget extension will be consolidated for this year and, yes, Congress can authorize credit extensions, which would require understanding with other political parties. On the other hand, the Spanish government can make use of the contingency fund, which is what it has already been doing in recent months when it has been expanding military supplies to Ukraine. Looking ahead to 2026, Sánchez would need to approve new budgets and negotiations on the defence chapter will once again be decisive.

Another way that Spain is looking to avoid having to boost the budget is for NATO to recognise as military expenditure other issues that it does not currently consider, such as cybersecurity, the fight against terrorism or border control. This weekend, from the PSOE congress in Galicia, Sánchez himself made it clear that the State's contribution should not necessarily be the same as that of the countries that share a border with Russia. In this sense, Brussels has opened the door to broadening the concept of military expenditure that can benefit from the flexibility of the fiscal rules that the European Commission wants to apply. However, at the moment it has not clarified what type of expenses they want to include, reports Gerard Fageda. Although other countries, especially those in southern Europe (Greece and Croatia, among others), are in favour of it, countries in the east and bordering Russia are pushing to maintain the traditional definition of military spending so that the increase in it is, in practice, higher.

Contradictions to Add Up

According to sources from Sumar, the Spanish vice-president has conveyed to Sánchez her space's commitment to an "autonomous, defensive and deterrent European defence and security model", that is, one that does not depend as much as it does now on the US and NATO. "The increase in defence spending by member states individually does not guarantee overcoming coordination problems. It does not guarantee greater strategic autonomy or more shared security quotas," she told him, and claimed: "There will be no European security if we do not face the fight against the precariousness and endemic poverty that exists on the continent."

Among the parties that make up Sumar there is a strong response to the claims of the State executive and Compromís has even threatened to withdraw support for the government if the increase in military spending is agreed with the PP. For his part, the deputy of the commons Gerardo Pisarello described the plans of the European Union in this area as "belligerent madness." In fact, this Monday afternoon there was a telematic meeting of all the actors that make up Sumar and they agreed on the rejection of the increase in the defense budget.

Sumar faces with internal contradictions a debate that is almost over in Europe, that of rearming in the face of Russian and US uncertainty, and the PSOE is looking for consensus that it will hardly find among its usual allies. For this reason, the first meeting since December 2023 between Sánchez and the leader of the PP, Alberto Núñez Feijóo, will take place this Thursday to address the issue of defense, a matter in which the two major parties of the State do understand each other. This Thursday they will not participate in the round of meetings with Sánchez because Díaz has already attended, while the spokespersons of ERC, Junts, PNV, EH Bildu, Podemos, BNG, Coalición Canaria and Unión del Pueblo Navarro will attend. All except Vox.