Sánchez faces the big decision

MadridThe year that is now beginning will not be just another year of this legislative term. We are entering a decisive stage for the PSOE and for the stability of the system. During 2025, the Socialists have suffered significant erosion of support. Aware of this, the Prime Minister, Pedro Sánchez, must decide whether to run in the next general election, whatever date it may be held. This will undoubtedly be a strictly personal decision, with a major impact on the political landscape. In any case, Sánchez will not be brought down by an internal party movement, which he currently controls without particular difficulty. However, there will be increasing calls for him to reflect on what should be done to guarantee the future of the organization. Some will express their concerns publicly, but what will grow significantly is the number of leaders who will raise the issue privately, in whispers, so that word spreads through the party structures and what is now a hypothesis begins to take shape.

This is how the effects of political radiation work. The PSOE hasn't panicked yet, but fear is definitely present. Many indicators demonstrate this, especially the effects of their poor showing in Extremadura. Everything the Socialists have done in relation to these elections could be part of a losers' handbook. And the worst part is that this is only the beginning. The PSOE's prospects for the upcoming regional elections in Aragon, Castile and León, and Andalusia don't improve the outlook.

So far, during these holidays, there has been practically no break in activity for the political forces. Everyone has been on the lookout, trying to maintain their respective positions on the front lines. Now we can better understand why the Prime Minister's appearance to review the year—followed by the Christmas reception at Moncloa Palace—took place on December 15th and not in the last week of the month, as was customary. It was necessary to anticipate the Extremadura election results to prevent the evaluation of the government's actions from being overshadowed by the analysis of the ballot box's verdict. On that occasion, Sánchez reiterated his decision to serve out his full term and, therefore, not to call elections until 2027, convinced that his government "is proving beneficial" to the public. He also emphasized the government's commitment to promoting a consistent social agenda during the remaining time of the current term. Six days after that year-end review, the only consolation the PSOE could find in the Extremadura results was the realization that María Guardiola had not achieved the PP's objective of securing a regional government without having to form a coalition with Vox. The Socialists' hope remains that whatever the Popular Party agrees to with the far right will mobilize the progressive vote, now deeply disappointed by the corruption cases and the PSOE's initial inaction regarding the complaints of women who were victims of sexual assault. This tactic worked in 2023. But it will hardly compensate for the government's significant erosion of support now. Recently, there has been renewed discussion in Madrid about the characteristics and benefits of the Transition. The Royal Household has placed considerable emphasis on this factor, with appearances by King Felipe VI, especially his Christmas Eve address. The voices calling for a change in attitudes on the political stage should be heard more. However, it will be difficult for Spain to escape the current trend of rising voter expectations for the far right.

For the People's Party (PP), the growth of Vox is an objective difficulty and a constant nightmare. Feijóo has not managed to distance himself from Abascal, who criticizes him almost as radically as he criticizes Sánchez. Nevertheless, wherever necessary, they will form alliances to begin a new political cycle in which the youth vote will be of particular importance. And there are many who plan to support far-right candidates as a protest vote, disappointed in this case by the problems that prevent them from starting or consolidating a life project, such as access to decent housing and the difficulties in finding a job with guarantees of stability and a fair wage, keeping pace with inflation, which remains unchecked.

Elections in Andalusia

Pedro Sánchez still believes he can turn things around. But the election results won't help him. The crucial moment will be the Andalusian elections, which will conclude the cycle of regional elections for the first half of the year. The PSOE may be fueling the idea that the Andalusian president, Juanma Moreno, will not retain his absolute majority, particularly punished by the breast cancer screening scandal. However, this scenario wouldn't improve his situation. It's not expected that the Socialists will gain more votes or responsibilities in any of the regions holding elections in the coming months. As the government itself says, its strength will have to lie in its social program. But the expectation remains that the 2026 budget won't be approved, even if it's presented. Similarly, it's hard to imagine that the First Vice President, María Jesús Montero, will succeed with her proposal for a new regional financing system. Nor are there many reasons to think that Montero will be able to resolve her promise of a unique model for Catalonia before leaving the government to head the lists in Andalusia.

The outlook for the Socialists isn't much better regarding the legal calendar. Feijóo is placing a lot of emphasis on this, rightly so, even though he also has his own headaches due to his dangerous relationship with Carlos Mazón. The PP leader claimed that the former Valencian president kept him informed "in real time" about the effects of the DANA storm during the tragic hours of October 29, 2024. The judge handling the case wants to verify this. The indecisiveness of the Popular Party, which should have forced Mazón's resignation much sooner, will weigh heavily on them in the immediate future. But the government's legal outlook is a thousand times more complicated. The Prime Minister will have to take this into serious consideration if he truly begins a thorough reflection on the end of the legislature and his candidacy in the next general elections.