PP and Vox try to destroy each other in Castile and León before it's their turn to negotiate

MadridThat the survey places PSOE in first position in the elections in Castilla y León is a more common scenario than in Extremadura or Aragon. While in the two communities where this electoral cycle began, the Socialists have governed for more years than the Popular Party, the territory that takes over from them is a historic fiefdom of the PP. The conservatives have governed there uninterruptedly since 1987, when José María Aznar ousted the PSOE and inaugurated four decades of right-wing hegemony. In the largest autonomous community in Spain, the Socialists have only won there on two occasions, in 1983 and 2019 – coinciding with Pedro Sánchez's first victory in the State –, although seven years ago it did not allow them to reach the regional executive. In this Sunday's election, with Sánchez at his most complicated moment, everything points to the PP being the leading force, but it will once again depend on Vox.

In the Popular Party ranks, they assume that an absolute majority is not a plausible scenario. Since 2015, with the emergence of Podem and Cs, the PP has needed the support of other parties to govern the region. The key to governability for the last four years has been Vox, which obtained more than 17% of the votes four years ago and, if the polls are correct, will now get even more. The unknown is how much the far-right can grow – in a community where it already starts from a high threshold – and what resistance capacity the traditional right will have in the midst of the tug-of-war between Alberto Núñez Feijóo and Santiago Abascal over the blockade in negotiations to form a government in Extremadura and Aragon, where the PP also needs them. The polls released internally by the Popular Party, according to party sources in Castilla y León consulted by ARA, point to an increase in votes in the nine provinces that would translate into a modest increase of "some" seats. The latest polls published by various private consultancies give them a maximum of three more and at the same time place Vox above 20%, with an increase of up to seven seats.

Direct confrontation

Therefore, the main battle is within the right-wing bloc, as has been perceived during the fifteen days of campaigning in which the PP and Vox have directly confronted each other. In one of the last rallies, this Thursday evening in a municipality in Burgos, the popular leader – who has had his own agenda there – warned Abascal that he does not accept "lessons in patriotism" from him. "I would be ashamed to vote with the PSOE and with Podemos in Extremadura," he reproached Vox. One of the main pillars of the PP's argument has been to assert itself as a party of "certainties" and focused on the region's problems, emphasizing the popular management track record and criticizing that in the summer of 2024 the far-right "ran away" from the coalition government they shared. Their candidate, Alfonso Fernández Mañueco, has also focused on the internal crisis of Abascal's party – former regional deputies of Vox are now running with Alvise Pérez's S'ha Acabat la Festa (SALF), without polls giving them a chance to enter the Courts – and has insisted that Vox is controlled from Madrid – the PP's "baron" assures, however, that Génova will not lead their negotiations.

The same regional PP sources aspire to convince the "sensible" and "reasonable" voter, although they admit that Vox better attracts "populist" votes as well as young people's. However, Castilla y León is precisely one of the oldest autonomous communities in Spain. Abascal, who has once again thrown himself into the campaign as if he were the candidate, has repeatedly warned Mañueco that attacks on Vox could backfire and that each outburst against them increases the price of their support when he needs it. In speeches that have also had a national dimension, the far-right leader has questioned Feijóo's leadership and his "pitiable" opposition and has harshly criticized Génova, blaming them for being, once they got involved in the talks in Extremadura and Aragon, the stumbling block for pacts.

The left-wing scenario

Despite acknowledging the "adversity" of the electoral landscape for the left and in elections where regionalist parties, such as Unión del Pueblo Leonés, also compete, the PSOE shows optimism and has expressed confidence until the last day of the campaign in the possibility of being the leading force. The Socialists rely, among other things, on the fact that they consider their candidate, Carlos Martínez, the mayor of Soria, to have a better profile than Mañueco. "There is a desire for change," they maintain after a campaign in which they have had the impetus of "No to the war" and have harshly attacked the Popular Party candidate for his management and ideological concessions to the far-right. The candidacy of Izquierda Unida and Sumar, led by Juan Gascón, also aspires to take advantage of "the fear of this spiral of hatred," and in a conversation with ARA states that they have "very good feelings.

The coalition hopes to win at least one seat for Valladolid, which Podemos would lose, as they are running separately and this time it is difficult for them to enter the Courts – they did not achieve it in Aragon either. Gascón, who claims that IU-Sumar has focused more than the PSOE campaign on regional issues, aspires to unite, in addition to the vote of the "transformative left," that of Castilians and Leonese with "ethical" convictions concerned about the future of the region. In this regard, he sees it as "positive" that the former Cs candidate and former regional vice-president, Francisco Igea, has announced that he will vote for him. "Castilla y León may be conservative, but it is not far-right," he maintains.