A plebiscite on Puigdemont and Junqueras

BarcelonaThe next Catalan elections are still a long way off, but one thing we can already guess is that, if the amnesty is ultimately implemented, Carles Puigdemont and Oriol Junqueras will be the headliners for Junts and ERC.

This confrontation has never occurred under normal conditions, that is, with both parties participating regularly in the campaign. During both the 21st December and the 2019 European elections, Junqueras was in prison and Puigdemont was in exile. In both cases, he defeated Puigdemont in a result that was interpreted as a victory for the exile strategy over that of prison.

In the 12th March elections, the tiebreaker for the independence movement occurred, and Junts clearly defeated ERC 35 to 20. Therefore, no one now expects Junqueras to defeat Puigdemont in the next elections. To understand how the outcome affects each leadership, we should analyze the starting point. That is, Puigdemont's current 35 points and Junqueras's 20 points.

Starting point

The elections would thus function as a kind of two internal plebiscites in both parties around the two leading figures of 2017. In Junqueras's case, it's clear that with a result equal to or lower than Pere Aragonès's 20, it would be very difficult for him to continue as party leader. With a score of 21-23, the debate would open. With 25 or more, Junqueras could declare victory. And Puigdemont? Here, the situation is more complex because Junts's polling prospects are falling due to the strength of AC. Hence, maintaining or slightly dropping the score (33 or 34) could be considered a success for Puigdemont, given the circumstances. But anything lower would start to rumble. And anything less than 30 would be catastrophic.

As I said, there's still a long way to go and many things can happen, but everything points to this Puigdemont-Junqueras duel, with Salvador Illa watching from a distance and knowing he's the winner. Although the polls also suggest that the current tripartite coalition might not be able to win, and perhaps the CUP should also be incorporated. The pro-independence majority, with the Catalan Alliance in the middle, is neither here nor expected.

The details

Two of the former ERC leaders implicated in the cartel case, Marc Colomer and Oriol Duran, have announced they are launching a consulting firm called Brama Comunicació. Both come from journalism backgrounds and held important positions within the ERC. In the internal leadership battle, both aligned themselves against Oriol Junqueras.

Radio host Federico Jiménez Losantos is very upset with Argentine President Javier Milei because he hasn't granted him any interviews despite the support he has shown him. This week, he lashed out at Milei and accused him of dealing only with "criminal journalists," a reference to the far-right agitator Javier Negre, who works in the Casa Rosada.