MadridAs the uncertainty and concern about the proposals of the new US administration grow, a strange race has emerged in the Spanish Parliament to see who has the most social conscience. All of this opens a period of uncertainty and disorder that does not seem to have a very good prognosis. Donald Trump's initiatives have made me think these days of a famous sequence ofThe great dictator, by Charles Chaplin, where the actor, wearing a uniform and a Hitler-like moustache, plays with a large globe, moving it capriciously from here to there. It is difficult to predict how far the trade war on tariffs can go, but I suspect that Europe will be more capable of defending its economic interests than of being consistent with the path it had taken in terms of foreign policy, supporting Ukraine and other countries that, like the Baltic countries, consider their security compromised by the challenge of Russian expansionism, led by Puman. However, I am very afraid that in the end we will have to be realistic. I understand that the Spanish government wants to maintain the discourse of solidarity with President Zelensky's regime, especially after what it cost him to get started, when he was still hesitating whether to send war material - lethal, it was called, as if it could be of another kind - to support the Ukrainians and to defend the territorial integrity of his country.
I still remember the general applause in the Congress of Deputies when the President of Ukraine, via telematic connection from Kiev, asked for help from Spain, mentioning the bombing of Gernika by the German air force in April 1937, in the midst of the Civil War. It was exciting, in a country that made the return of the famous Picasso painting dedicated to that massacre a symbol of its democratic recovery. Now it will be difficult to accept a peace agreement that involves the territorial division of Ukraine and to accept the European weakness when it comes to providing security to countries that, like Poland, or the aforementioned Baltic or Scandinavian countries, feel threatened if this time Putin achieves his objectives, even partially. These days I have also remembered the great statue of the Russian soldier that was erected in the Norwegian town of Kirkenes, in memory of the expulsion of the Nazis. I passed by that place after a congress of indigenous peoples that was held in Tromso, in the nineties. The statue was not far from the border with Russia. That image was the symbol of liberation during World War II. What a contrast to today's reality. I wish Josep Borrell could have remained a little longer as the High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy. We would have had a firm voice in defence of Europe as the main actor in any peace process for Ukraine.
It is often said that crises are also opportunities, but if they have to be caused by leaders of the profile of Donald Trump, it is better if we could avoid them. In terms of domestic policy, in any case, it is curious how Pedro Sánchez's government has reacted, trying to defend more than ever the lines of action of a classic social democratic model. All the speeches of the socialist leader during the month of January, and so far in February, have been to claim a reformist will seeking objectives of equality and social justice. And this is in parallel with continuous warnings about the risks that democratic systems run if governments end up in the hands of a "techno-caste" like the one surrounding Trump. If we had already been warned very seriously about the dangers posed by the rise of the extreme right in Europe, the addition of the evolution of American democracy towards a model of "direct action" and manipulation of the networks is even more disturbing. That is why Sánchez wanted to remember the general conditions of the socially committed democratic law. But he has found some foreseeable and some unexpected competition.
The controversy over the taxation of the minimum wage
The whole conflict over the increase in the minimum wage and the parallel controversy over the corresponding tax payment by the beneficiaries is a kind of second chapter of the series that began with the omnibus decree that carried the increase in pensions in its belly. In that first episode, the PP was wrong in not supporting the PSOE's proposal, whose Feijóo apparently approached Junts to punish the government. The Popular Party missed the penalty and had to go and pick up the ball by voting for a smaller decree agreed by the Socialists and the Junts. It does not surprise me that José Félix Tezanos, president of the Centre for Sociological Studies (CIS), has taken advantage of the situation by means of a survey that gives the PSOE an advantage of more than five points over the PP in voting intention. I do not know if he is right in his predictions, but Tezanos greatly enjoys cooking data and sociological research. The survey was carried out in days when the controversy over the reduction of the working day occupied the front pages, and every little bit helps. The result is a feeling of guilt on the part of the Popular Party which has led them to rush to regain positions in the ranking of parties with discourse and social sensitivity. The opportunity has come with the increase in the minimum wage and the subsequent controversy over the declaration of personal income tax by the beneficiaries of the improvement.
The most spectacular thing has been the staging of the controversy provided to us by the vice-president Yolanda Díaz, Minister of Labour, and the government spokesperson, Pilar Alegría, at the press conference of the Council of Ministers. In this matter, I am with Unai Sordo, the general secretary of CCOO, who said that the conflict could have been perfectly avoided. I doubt that Sumar will achieve electoral benefits with fights of this type in the government coalition. And if seeing the PP with Junts was already shocking, now seeing the Popular Party aligned with Sumar is also curious. I understand Vice President Maria Jesús Montero, head of the Treasury, when she says that she does not want to establish the principle that the minimum wage does not pay income tax, but she has a bad piece in the loom. Not even Trump's cry to impose tariffs will save her, the one that paraphrases the title of a well-known Sydney Pollack film, saying "pay, pay, damn it."
