Mazón's chaos spreads panic among the PP barons

Barcelona / MadridCarlos Mazón is a problem for the People's Party (PP) that is causing internal panic. The chaos perpetrated by the acting Valencian president, with his handling of the devastating floods and his resignation a year later, has led to negotiations with Vox in the Valencian Community—validated by Alberto Núñez Feijóo—that convey a strong dependence on the far right, which continues to grow, and a multitude of messages. This concern has been reported by multiple PP sources in various regions, as consulted by ARA, but the national leadership is trying to downplay it, even though Vox sources make it clear that the Valencian ultimatum is absolute and carries a message for Feijóo regarding the future: "Govern with Vox's program or nothing." All of this, while on the eve of a new meeting of the Fiscal and Financial Policy Council (CPFF)This further highlights the division among PP-governed regions on the issue of funding. The Balearic president, Marga Prohens, this week called for guaranteeing "ordinality"—that if the Balearic region is the second largest contributor to the state coffers, it should also be the second largest recipient—in the new funding model. However, other prominent PP figures, such as Juanma Moreno from Andalusia and Jorge Azcón from Aragon, have been openly rejecting this demand, which is also championed by Catalonia, for months. The PP is divided over funding and its disparate relationship with Vox, all while immersed in an election cycle that kicks off in Extremadura. Regional president María Guardiola called early elections to avoid yielding to the far-right's demands regarding the budget. This move coincides with the PP negotiating concessions to Vox's demands in the Valencian Community. The Valencian Popular Party even suggested they are working on an "irresistible" proposal, and Vox also noted a "very positive predisposition." Although those at the PP headquarters on Génova Street downplay the fact that negotiations in the Valencian Community with Vox coincide with the snap election in Extremadura, some voices within the PP admit there is a risk of "contradiction" in the messages. At the same time that Guardiola's government goes to the polls aiming to overcome a dependence on the far right that has led it to a dead end, the alliance that this regional leader rejects is being forged on the other side of the peninsula. How to reconcile both strategies? According to the national leadership, "Valencia is a separate matter" and "is not subordinate" to the Extremadura scenario. The Popular Party leadership denies that any request has been made from Extremadura to avoid being affected by the impact of the Valencian negotiations, and they frame the talks as part of the normal process of governing alone without an absolute majority.

"Trapped by Vox"

Another PP leader consulted says that the Mazón affair "wasn't properly calculated" and that it "has been a real pain for everyone," including in the polls – although internally they acknowledge a recovery in surveys.commissioned by the leadership. "Everyone is watching the consequences of Mazón's actions," they maintain, because "in Valencia, Vox will try to screw things up however they can to reach some crazy agreement." In fact, they recall that "Mazón was already the first to ruin Feijóo's strategy [before the 2023 state elections] by making a deal with Vox." The problem is that "the image is ugly" because the Popular Party projects that they are "held hostage by Vox," which "wants to show off."

Other PP sources emphasize that relations with Vox "are strictly necessary," and at this moment, "since negotiations must take place in Valencia, then they are being conducted." But the tension is palpable because within the Popular Party ranks there is a feeling that "more than trying to win elections or oust Sánchez, Vox wants to replace the PP's position, just as Ciudadanos wanted." According to this source, the PP's intention is to pursue its own agenda with its own "program" befitting a "governing party," adhering to a principle that has often been invoked in regional pacts: "If Vox has decision-making power, let them decide; otherwise, if they wish, let the PSOE govern." In any case, they do not intend to "brainstorm," and categorically express what is, in reality, a desire: that the PP "will never govern with Vox's program."

PP-Vox Relations

Relations with the PP are in a constant state of tension, and in many regions, such as Catalonia, "there are no relations whatsoever," according to another leader. The PP is seeking "strategic votes" and assumes that "things will go well in Extremadura," but that "whether you need Vox depends on the outcome." At this point, the party is focused on "winning the same number of seats as the entire opposition," and this region is the testing ground, the first where the effects of Mazón's chaos and the last-minute negotiations with Vox will be seen. There, they intend to capitalize on the "weakness" of the Socialist leader, Miguel Ángel Gallardo, who is facing legal troubles in the case involving Pedro Sánchez's brother, sources from the PP headquarters in Madrid indicate. It is true that despite the frenetic competition, according to Vox sources consulted, there is "cordiality," with high-level relations between the parties having been resumed, and disparity at the regional level. Proof of the renewed negotiations was "the second call in a year" that took place this Tuesday between Feijóo and Abascal to announce that the candidate for the Valencian Community would be Juanfran Pérez Llorca. The first call was to initiate talks regarding the Valencian Community, and they also met in Congress in June. However, "it is becoming increasingly clear that a PP-only government will not be possible, that it will depend on Vox, and that will affect the government program," they conclude regarding a potential scenario after elections in Spain.

The first real test is the Valencian Community negotiations, which Vox sees as a "message" to make it clear what could be coming for Guardiola and Feijóo himself. Tensions with Guardiola arose after the 2023 regional elections, and in Andalusia, where the PP holds an absolute majority, Vox has even called for the resignation of Juanma Moreno and early elections. This tension between the two parties is also present in Castile and León, but the next test will be Aragon, where there are also disagreements between Vox and Jorge Azcón and where the lack of a budget could lead to elections. As for Murcia, Fernando López Miras has re-established a budget agreement between parties, as in the Balearic Islands, although there There's a give and take between Vox and Marga ProhensFor example, on the Catalan language issue. In Madrid, however, Isabel Díaz Ayuso governs with an absolute majority, but with the fear that Vox's support could complicate matters for the Valencian Community. The tension between the two parties in recent weeks is an indicator of this.