MadridIf it were up to the Supreme Court, former president Carles Puigdemont would not be granted amnesty. Not even after the ruling by the Court of Justice of the European Union, in which it declared that the 1st of October did not affect the financial interests of the European Union. This was demonstrated once again this Tuesday, when the investigating magistrate of the 'Procés' case, Pablo Llarena, again refused to withdraw the arrest warrant against the former president and apply the amnesty to him. However, the tone of the court order was already different from previous ones, like someone who already knows they are reaching the end of the road. The high court maintains its doctrine of excluding the crime of embezzlement from the law because it interprets that Puigdemont and the rest of the exiles obtained a financial benefit following the referendum of October 2017, but it also admits that this is the case while awaiting the ongoing appeals for amparo at the Constitutional Court (TC). Llarena's decision comes weeks before the TC begins to discuss the appeal for amparo of the pro-independence leaders, which would foreseeably dismantle this criterion of the Supreme Court to unblock the application of the amnesty. The forecast, therefore, is that if the Constitutional Court is clear in endorsing the arguments of the former prisoners and exiles, Llarena will indeed modify his doctrine.
In fact, last week sources from the Supreme Court admitted that this could happen even before resolving all the appeals individually. These sources indicated that they might have to rectify their interpretation regarding embezzlement if the TC upholds the appeal for amparo of former minister Jordi Turull –which is foreseeably the first one to be discussed– with arguments that could also be applicable to Puigdemont.
In fact, the very resolution issued this Tuesday by Llarena hints at it. He considers that the CJEU ruling and those made so far by the Constitutional Court endorsing the rule do not question the non-application of the amnesty to Puigdemont, but acknowledges that these resolutions have not validated the interpretation made by the Supreme Court either. Thus, he puts the ball in the court of the Constitutional Court and the amparo appeals. "The rulings [of the CJEU and TC] invoked have not rendered ineffective the interpretation of personal benefit used in this case, but they do not constitute a specific validation of this interpretation either. The amparo appeals have their own object and it is not appropriate to anticipate them here," he assures.
Recognition of the CJEU ruling
Llarena devotes 25 pages to denying the amnesty following the CJEU ruling and also refuses to recuse himself from the case in favor of courts in Catalonia.
To begin with, he recalls that he and the criminal chamber of the Supreme Court have denied amnesty to Puigdemont and also to Toni Comín based on two arguments: that the October 1st referendum affected the financial interests of the amnesty and that the referendum resulted in a financial benefit for the pro-independence leaders, which is a scenario that the amnesty law itself excludes from being covered. "The economic advantage does not lie in receiving the price, but in avoiding the disbursement necessary to obtain what has been decided to be acquired," he says. And he continues: "In applying this interpretation to the facts, the interlocutory order does not state that the defendants materially received public funds, but rather that they promoted the initiative and used their government powers to charge the cost to the Generalitat. That is to say, they promoted the initiative without bearing the corresponding cost with their own assets."
However, Llarena does acknowledge that the CJEU ruling forces him to modify his previous consideration of rejecting the amnesty due to the impact of the pro-independence process on the Union's budget. "The CJEU ruling prevents maintaining this interpretation [...] the objection of the defense is well-founded. The present decision [to deny the amnesty] can no longer be based on the hypothesis of a reduction in European revenues due to a possible independence," the interlocutory order admits.
On the other hand, Llarena also rejects the other requests from the defense teams. He reaffirms that he must maintain jurisdiction even though he is no longer investigating the crime of sedition – which disappeared with the latest reform of the Penal Code – and refuses to send the case to Catalonia. His argument is that expenses related to the referendum were incurred from external bodies of the Generalitat and also in other countries.
Furthermore, he also anticipates that if there is an amnesty from the Court of Auditors in the October 1st case – which is directly affected by the CJEU ruling – it will not imply an automatic amnesty at the Supreme Court. He makes it clear that one thing is that "accounting liability is extinguished" and that they do not have to "return the improperly spent money," and the other is criminal liability.
With this resolution, then, it is clear that the Supreme Court will change its position if the Constitutional Court dismantles the interpretation it makes regarding the embezzlement in the 1-O case. Or that is what all the forecasts say: the Minister of Justice, Félix Bolaños, in statements to the Senate, has assured that the application of the amnesty is a matter of "time" and that Llarena's resolution is important: "The novelty is that it takes into account the new scenario that will open with the appeals for protection from the TC", highlighted the minister, who added that the "normalization" in Catalonia will not be "complete" until it is fully applied to the leadership of the Procés.
Amnesty timeline
September 22
The Constitutional Court is set to discuss the draft ruling by conservative magistrate José María Macías regarding Jordi Turull's appeal for protection (recurso de amparo). As explained by ARA, he intends to reject it, but since the majority of the TC does not agree, he will either redraft the ruling in accordance with the majority's criteria or pass the case on to another progressive rapporteur.
October 6
This is the next scheduled plenary session for the Constitutional Court to discuss the appeals for protection. A decision could be reached on the first case debated that same week.
Publication of the Constitutional Court's ruling
The Constitutional Court's decision on whether or not to uphold the first appeal for protection by the pro-independence leaders would not be enough for the Supreme Court to issue a ruling. To decide whether it establishes a general doctrine applicable to the rest of the 'Procés' leadership, the sentence would need to be published. This process can take about 15 days after the initial ruling (fallo).
Llarena's statement
Once the TC publishes the ruling, Llarena will have to make a statement and decide whether to apply the amnesty and withdraw the arrest warrant for Puigdemont.
Decision of the Supreme Court chamber
Llarena would not dictate the definitive dismissal of Puigdemont's case if the TC rules in his favor. The investigating magistrate would have to refer the case to the criminal chamber of the Supreme Court, which would be the one to put an end to it definitively. Sources close to the former president do not clarify the exact procedural moment at which he would return to Catalonia, should all this come to pass. However, all sources indicate that it could happen before the end of the year.