Is a moderate PP that makes an agreement with Junts possible?

MadridJosé María Aznar must always be listened to. Beyond the occasional strident declaration or the catchy soundbite that makes headlines, what he says usually reflects in depth the thinking of the dominant right-wing in Madrid. Not always coincident with what, by intuition, the Galician Alberto Nuñez Feijóo might think.

This Wednesday's speech at the Fórum Europa breakfast, with the popular party's spokesperson in Congress, Ester Muñoz, could be an example. The PP and Junts are not negotiating a motion of no confidence, but the coincidence in votes in Congress to weaken Pedro Sánchez has fueled speculation about what could happen after elections.

Therefore, and just in case, Aznar has already put on the brakes. In his speech, he has outlined the strategy: a call to unite a uninational majority to unseat Sánchez. "It will be national or it will not be," he said, excluding both Junts and the PNV from the equation. A warning to any popular or convergent leader who nostalgically recalls the Majestic pact (which, incidentally, he himself signed).

For the hardline sector of the PP, Sánchez has crossed a red line, which is that independentism (from Puigdemont to Junqueras, including the abertzale left) forms part of the State's governability. "No one in 1978 could have thought that Moncloa would end up being a Madrid delegation of secessionism," Aznar summarized. For this reason, he considers that the next elections will be the "most important" in recent history, because they will decide on a change of system: a national one, with a majority of forces that believe Spain is one nation, or a plurinational one around Sánchez, even though it is still time for the PSOE to define what that means – that matter would be the subject of another article.

The PP-Junts relationship

The PP, in private, treats the PNB much more harshly than the Puigdemont supporters, because Puigdemont's party has agreed to several parliamentary gestures that have weakened the Spanish government. The latest, last week, was demanding that Sánchez resign or submit to a vote of confidence, something the former president already demanded a year ago.

Unlike any left-wing partner, Junts needs to show that it can speak on both sides of the Spanish parliamentary spectrum. A former CiU deputy, still influential in Míriam Nogueras's group, used to say that the key to bringing fish to the basket was to be able to negotiate with the PSOE, but also with the PP, as only then would their interlocutor understand that they had negotiating power. The problem is that this was before the 'Procés' and before Vox existed, which changes everything.

Now Junts and the PP are flirting, but neither is supporting a motion of no confidence nor a future pact. The current dialogue is parliamentary, from spokesperson to spokesperson, with no negotiation table open. At any table, Junts would now ask the Popular Party what it asked the PSOE – a photo in Waterloo, amnesty, or transferring more power to the Generalitat – and the PP is not willing to do that. They know that after the next elections they will not be alone in the crusade because the numbers indicate that Feijóo will need Vox to govern. The far-right is an element that prevents pacts with the independentists: Puigdemont's party would not be in the same governing majority as Abascal's, and vice versa. In these times, the moderate PP is an illusion that is difficult to transform into reality.