How to give up 4.7 billion euros for Catalonia
BarcelonaIt is clear – as Oriol Junqueras likes to say – that the proposed new financing model does not give Catalonia the key to its coffers: there will be no special economic agreement nor a unique model separate from the other autonomous communities. But it is also clear that it will bring more resources to the Generalitat's coffers: according to the Ministry of Finance's calculations, almost 4.7 billion euros in 2027. From these two facts, we enter the realm of opinions, where politicians choose sides to try to dismantle their rival's arguments.
Juntos basically had two options for reacting to the pact between ERC and the PSOE on financing (neither of which involved celebrating, since the credit goes to the Republicans and Socialists). The first option, the one they chose, was to launch a frontal attack against a model that doesn't eliminate Catalonia's fiscal deficit and focus exclusively on pointing out the "lies" and contradictions of Esquerra Republicana, which sold the pact to invest Salvador Illa as the definitive solution to Catalan underfunding. The second, more prudent option would have been to criticize the new model as insufficient, but remain open to negotiation, avoiding maximalist positions (no one will be able to replicate the Basque Economic Agreement, at least in the short term).
The resounding rejection by Junts of the new model means they will now have to explain how they are forgoing 4.7 billion euros. Or, in other words, once the initial visceral reaction of the debate has subsided, Junts will have to explain what alternative can garner an alternative majority. Not in five years—the duration of the new model, according to the Minister of Finance—but very soon. If their votes in Congress weren't decisive, they could maintain their position without too much trouble—this is what can happen with several PP-led regional governments—but the arithmetic that has given them negotiating power on other occasions now becomes a heavy burden. Their vehement opposition to the new model will likely prevent them from voting in favor if they want to maintain the consistency they claim ERC has lost.
The contradictions
The Republicans have long been learning to live with the contradictions that have probably hurt them at the polls in recent years. Junqueras himself is a favorite target of any newspaper archive. He is the same man who, a few years ago, rejected any negotiation with the Spanish government because he didn't trust that agreements would be honored, and who now, on the contrary, applauds the merits of the agreement with Moncloa Palace—with photographs of himself with Pedro Sánchez and Salvador Illa included in the packHowever, once it's practically universally accepted that Catalan independence isn't an issue that will be resolved in the coming years, the Republicans' pragmatic stance offers them a more comfortable starting point.
"If someone votes against it, the resources will go to the Ministry of Finance instead of into the pockets of families." Junqueras exclaimed this FridayPointing to the money that will be lost by the Generalitat's social programs—"hospitals, schools, research centers, long-term care"... This will, in fact, be the main attack on the Junts party's core position, which will also face pressure from socioeconomic powers, with whom the President of the Generalitat will meet this afternoon. "Perhaps there will be a bit more coffee, but it's still coffee for everyone," they reply from Junts, who are surely already looking for a better response.