How does Ábalos's imprisonment affect Pedro Sánchez's majority in Congress?

MadridIt has been over a year and a half since José Luis Ábalos left the PSOE and joined the mixed group as an independent. However, throughout that time, the former Minister of Transport has been a guaranteed vote for Pedro Sánchez in Congress—when he attended plenary sessions, which wasn't always the case—unlike the votes of other allies in the investiture majority. With Ábalos's imprisonment, the parliamentary precariousness of the Spanish Prime Minister, which suffered another blow this Thursday, has worsened. the derailment of deficit and debt targetsThe situation is further emphasized. Despite being imprisoned, the former Minister of Transport will be able to retain his seat in Parliament. However, he will be suspended as a member of parliament. This is what Congress anticipates, and according to parliamentary sources, it has already contacted the Supreme Court to "certify the decision" in order to "initiate the procedure for the Bureau's agreement on suspension, according to Article 21.2 of the regulations." With this move, the lower house takes an unprecedented step: it is the first time a sitting member of parliament has been sent to prison.

The aforementioned article provides for suspension "when, after the Chamber has granted the authorization requested and the indictment has been issued, the individual is in pretrial detention and for as long as that detention lasts." In Ábalos's case, the indictment is not yet final because an appeal is pending, but the same sources argue that it can still be applied to him because it is an expedited procedure. What does the suspension entail? Sánchez's government loses a vote, since Ábalos will retain his status as a member of parliament but will not be able to vote. His absence means that Junts' abstention will cause votes that until now had been passed (as happened with the extension of nuclear power plants) by a single vote to fail. Yeah of difference. With the suspension, Ábalos will also be unable to collect his parliamentary salary. This situation will last for the duration of his pretrial detention. If the Supreme Court were to review the precautionary measure and release him, Ábalos would regain his salary and voting rights. However, in the meantime, he will not be able to participate in votes—not even remotely, and he will not be able to delegate his vote—present initiatives, or receive his parliamentary salary.

If he were to resign his seat once the Supreme Court has sent him to prison, that seat would revert to the PSOE (Spanish Socialist Workers' Party). The next person on the June 23rd list for Valencia would take his place, meaning the Socialists would once again have 121 members of parliament. Sources within the PSOE leadership state that they have not asked the former minister to resign his seat if he goes to prison and confirm that no one from the party has contacted him. "He is responsible for his seat; it belongs to him," they maintain. The PSOE distances itself from Ábalos and defends its decisive action from the outset—opening expulsion proceedings against him as soon as the alleged corruption case involving mask contracts came to light. The same sources explain that if he were to decide to resign his seat on his own, he could do so remotely from prison.

The reduction of the absolute majority

Another question that arises—with an answer that is still unclear—is what happens to the absolute majority in Congress. The Speaker's office is considering whether to maintain it as it is, at 176 deputies—half plus one of the 350 deputies—or lower it, assuming 349 deputies (excluding Ábalos), to 175. This could make things easier for Sánchez in votes that only require a simple majority. The same Socialist sources are not ruling out any scenario. Vox, for its part, has already warned that it will consider taking any hypothetical change to the majority to court. When Congress was presided over by Meritxell Batet and the same dilemma arose with the pro-independence leaders—Oriol Junqueras, Jordi Turull, Josep Rull, and Jordi Sànchez were elected in 2019 while in pretrial detention—the Speaker's office left the majority at 350 and rejected lowering it to 4.