Esquerra's last bullet in Madrid

Subhead of PoliticsGabriel Rufián said on Thursday that the PSOE had already contacted them to discuss next year's budgets. However, he did not reveal whether the Republicans were willing to negotiate them or if they had already decided on the conditions they would set. He simply said he hoped the Spanish government would present the accounts to "negotiate and approve them," meaning they should not be "an excuse or a lever for other things," in reference to a possible early election. Is ERC really willing to negotiate the budgets?

For now, the party is trying to put the ball in the PSOE's court: "The question is whether the Spanish government is willing to do so with the progressive agenda and with Catalonia." They are therefore avoiding setting any conditions for now. "We are not here," say Republican sources. Junts, for their part, has directly closed the door to sitting down with the Spanish government to discuss the accounts. The PSOE still owes both parties the fulfillment of the main investiture agreements, but the difference is that Junts has thrown in the towel and is already asking Sánchez for elections, while ERC wants to make the most of the legislature to try to get as much as possible from Madrid.

A handful of agreements that the Republicans have signed for the investitures of Pedro Sánchez and Salvador Illa depend on the Spanish government. Not least, the new financing model or the transfer of IRPF revenue. Two issues that not only depend on the political will of the PSOE, but also require other actors to play a role, such as Junts, which has so far refused to endorse the new financing because they consider it insufficient. The settlement of part of the debt from the Autonomous Liquidity Fund (FLA) is another of the issues that has been dragging on for months, but in this case, the forecast was that it could be resolved before going on vacation.

The precedent of the Catalan accounts

Taking into account how Esquerra got its fingers burned with the IRPF when making it a condition for the Catalan budgets, now nothing suggests that the republicans will want to sit down to negotiate with the PSOE if there is no water in the pool on the other side. That is to say, if the PSOE does not guarantee that the pending agreements can go ahead. And even more so considering that these budgets could end up being instrumental, a springboard for Sánchez to advance the general elections.

However, with the 2026 budget folder closed in Catalonia – next week they will be definitively approved in Parliament – and with the Spanish legislature hanging by a thread, Esquerra wants to focus all its attention on Madrid. The proof is the visit that Oriol Junqueras made last week to the Spanish capital, where he met with political, economic, and social actors. He also met with the ERC parliamentary group in Madrid, where the battle with Rufián continues. "Coordination", as the leadership itself prescribed a week ago, will be key for the strategy the party wants to follow in the coming months to take hold.

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