Cornering Guardiola: the first step of Vox's strategy to achieve the Meloni effect

BarcelonaVox has a short-, medium-, and long-term plan to put Santiago Abascal in La Moncloa (the Spanish Prime Minister's official residence). The first step in this strategy is being taken these days in negotiations with the PP (People's Party) for the regional governments of Extremadura and Aragon, which will coincide with the elections in Castile and León and Andalusia. All of this is with an eye on the 2027 general elections. According to information obtained by ARA, the far-right's plan hinges on an initial demand: to enter the government of Extremadura. The excuse is that they don't trust the president, María Guardiola, but the reality is more complex; Vox intends to corner the Extremaduran leader while simultaneously making things easier for others. males Populars, for example, Jorge Azcón in Aragon.

There is "harmony" with Azcón, and Vox will not make holding ministerial positions within his government a "condition." The objective is for the agreement in this autonomous community to serve to expose Guardiola, either by forcing her to accept being a president under scrutiny or by forcing her into a repeat election, which they believe would be her political downfall. Vox has detected nervousness within the PP and intends to exploit it. "Now, in Génova (the PP headquarters), they are in a great hurry to finalize agreements, especially in Extremadura, and they are saying yes to everything. But we have told them that this is not the point and that we have our own timeline," say sources within the leadership. Abascal's party fears that Feijóo will stall negotiations in Aragon until an agreement is reached in Extremadura, in an attempt to derail Vox's plan. However, they assert that if he does, they will break off negotiations, as they believe they hold all the cards and can dictate the timetable. Vox also expects to soon finalize negotiations with Alfonso Fernández Mañueco of Castile and León, who was the first to reach a governing agreement with them in 2022, despite his centrist leanings. In this case, they anticipate no difficulties after the March 15 elections. They also hope to reach an agreement with Juanma Moreno Bonilla of Andalusia—who belongs to the more moderate wing and is less inclined towards Vox—after the June elections, in which, according to internal polls by the far right, the PP could lose its absolute majority. At the same time, they show that the relationship with the Valencian president, Juanfran Pérez Llorca, "is going very well and there is trust" in the external pact, which began with the investiture agreement after the 2024 breakFeijóo is on the move.

Given the directive from the PP's state leadership to go to work and the demand for "discretion" and "less noise" from their own baroness Extremaduran, that was disavowedAlberto Núñez Feijóo is moving to avoid a repeat election in Extremadura that could further weaken the PP. His haste contrasts sharply with Vox's calm approach: while the Galician leader tries to project an image of the supposed strength of coalition governments with the far right, as he has stated in several interviews—such as a recent one in The World–, At the same time, he fears the talks will drag on too long.

If a satisfactory agreement isn't reached and there's a repeat election, it's quite possible the PP will suffer further losses to Vox's benefit. And this is where the idea of ​​changing the PP candidate would gain considerable traction, a scenario the radical right isn't ruling out. In fact, Guardiola's recent shifts in rhetoric have only increased distrust. Before forming a pact with Vox in 2023, Guardiola said he couldn't allow "those who deny gender violence," "throw the LGBTQ+ flag in the trash," and "dehumanize immigrants" into the government; he also called Abascal "sexist" at the end of last year, while this week he defended "Vox's feminism."

"Real changes"

Vox wants to capitalize on the divisions within the People's Party (PP) and, at the same time, cultivate the "Giorgi Meloni effect" so that its accumulated growth will catapult it to leadership of the right wing in the medium term. Agreements for regional governments—which will only require participation based on the trust generated by the local PP—should serve to "highlight" that their "influence" brings about "real and tangible changes." "People need to see that thanks to Vox, things are happening. And we can achieve that from the outside too," they claim.

According to sources consulted by this newspaper, in Aragon, the pact with the PP could be swift, agreeing on some positions in institutions that, without being part of the government, would allow them to control policies related to industrial development or water management, as well as the regional television station—in addition to a program of housing and agricultural policies. On television, they want to highlight Vox's model for public media, with staff cuts and ideological bias, acting with the ultraliberal streak that foreshadows what they want to do at Spanish Radio and Television (RTVE) – far-right leaders Manuel Mariscal and José María Figaredo have asked to enter "with flamethrowers."

Forcing the machine and the consulate

In policy, Vox wants to explore areas such as river management and cleanup "to demonstrate that things can be done differently" and position Extremadura and other regions as a precursor to the national hydrological plan that the party advocates. In Aragon, there could be some clashes on this issue due to the PP's opposition to the Ebro water transfer. But their main focus is on immigration; they are clinging to Article 35.2 of the immigration law, which states that "the autonomous communities may establish agreements with the countries of origin aimed at ensuring that the care and social integration of minors takes place in their country of origin." This approach is already being explored in the Valencian Community to manage the return of minors. Regarding immigration, they also want to introduce "national priority" in access to subsidized housing and social assistance, adding to their measures against the Green Deal and environmental "impositions." Thus, they intend to "push the envelope" in all regions to provoke a clash with the Spanish government—which could challenge the measures—and to demonstrate that the limits set by some PP leaders can be overcome: "Everything Guardiola said couldn't be done, can be done." If the Popular Party wants their support, they already know that all feminist policies are excluded from any agreements and that trans laws will have to be repealed.