Chronology of the legislature: the judiciary corners Sánchez

Madrid"No government crisis and no Santos [Cerdán] leaving the PSOE," "Nothing about Santos at all. We'll find an audio recording of him talking about public works, but nothing about compensation." Only 24 hours before the Civil Guard report and the near-indictment of the former PSOE number 3 in the Supreme Court were released, several sources from the Moncloa closed ranks and expressed their absolute conviction that Pedro Sánchez's right-hand man at Ferraz was clean. "We're very calm," they insisted. Did Cerdán deceive his entire party until the very last moment? Did he claim that he shouldn't defend himself against anything because he had no idea that Koldo García had been secretly recording conversations for over four years? This is the version that Pedro Sánchez proposes to survive the Cerdán case, the harsh blow of a legislature contaminated by action in the courts to unsuspected extents, whether due to the legitimate oversight of endemic corruption or the temptations to engage in politics from the judiciary.

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It seems far away, but the week started with the prosecution of the State Attorney General, Álvaro García Ortiz, one of the episodes that would demonstrate that there are judges forming "real opposition" to the Spanish government, in the words of Minister Óscar Puente. When the Minister of Justice, Félix Bolaños, hears the word lawfare In the Congress chamber, used by pro-independence spokesmen, he states that "this Anglicism is unacceptable," just as he said on Wednesday, but in private the messages are quite different. Most of the legal fronts against the government drew a favorable framework for the narrative of the mud machine that Sánchez christened when Judge Juan Carlos Peinado indicted his wife, Begoña Gómez, and the proof is that all his partners had bought into it. As late as Thursday, there were still allies, such as Junts, who considered Cerdán a victim of police and media persecution.

However, the real evidence of corruption is a torpedo for Sánchez's discourse about a "hunt" for the entire right-wing conglomerate. It still exists, the PSOE leader stated in his appearance at Ferraz when he spoke of the "opposition's siege with multiple things that do not correspond to reality" – and mentioned the Leire Díez case – although it is no longer the dominant note of judicial oversight in the Spanish government. Now, a serious corruption case that was limited to José Luis Ábalos and Koldo GarcíaBut it's already implicating Cerdán and threatening to become a major legal case without a defined scope. In fact, the UCO (Spanish National University of Catalonia) in its report hinted at some elements that would point to possible irregular financing of the PSOE (Spanish Socialist Workers' Party). However, Sánchez wants to get out of it by also positioning himself as the victim of a betrayal by someone who has been one of his closest collaborators, which paints a picture of absolute distrust, one that not even political leaders can believe in their colleagues. "I have many flaws, and one of them is believing in the integrity of politics," the Spanish president said on Thursday.

The legislature of 'lawfare'

With the permission of the Koldo-Ábalos-Cerdán case, this could be the legislature of the lawfare"Of course, politics is done from the judiciary, but that's nothing new; we Catalans have been suffering from it for years. We include the word lawfare to the investiture pact. We were told it didn't exist, and now that there are other victims, they seem to be getting their act together." This is how Junts spokesperson in Madrid, Míriam Nogueras, expressed herself earlier this week in response to the climate of political and judicial tension in the state. ERC spokesperson, Gabriel Rufián, pointed out: "We are at war. And in a war, soldiers are not exchanged." He was referring to whether the State Attorney General should resign over his indictment. This episode has even led to an unusual confrontation between two of Spain's main newspapers, The Country and The World, because the conservative newspaper accused journalists from the Prisa Group –owner ofThe Country and Cadena SER—to come "to the aid" of Álvaro García Ortiz with her testimony.

At the halfway point of the legislature—not yet—the list of events related to interference by the judiciary in politics, and vice versa, is very long. In the attached graph, a chronology of about forty key moments summarizes a mandate marked by polarization and clash, with a clear origin: the amnesty, which is nothing more than a total amendment of the legislative branch to the judicial branch, with the added component of being a toll that Sánchez paid to obtain the seven votes of Junts for the investiture. It is symptomatic that, after the presidential candidate announced the amnesty on October 28, 2023, at a PSOE federal committee in Ferraz, the second milestone is the "Whoever can do it, let it do it" of former Spanish president José María Aznar in a talk. From then on, a blatant offensive against the amnesty was unleashed by certain judges, such as Manuel García-Castellón with the Democratic Tsunami case and Joaquín Aguirre with the case of the Russian plot in the Proceso. Both cases ended up being archived, the first due to a procedural error by the National Court judge and the other because it had no basis.

The infographic shows how the amnesty chapter is the one that appears most frequently on the calendar, and more will follow, because the Constitutional Court will rule during the week of San Juan and the Supreme Court will continue its crusade against the application of the law to Carles Puigdemont. Over the months, more files have been added: for example, the Begoña Gómez case, which motivated the five days of reflection by the Spanish president, who decided to continue in Moncloa to launch a plan for democratic regeneration that affects institutions, the media, and the justice system. This week, Judges and prosecutors have gone on strike to protest against the reforms promoted by Bolaños. Also the judicial case against Sánchez's brother and, as has been commented, that of the Attorney General, totally linked to the procedure opened against Isabel Díaz Ayuso's partner, which runs in parallel While the commission of the Catalunya operation is being held in Congress, where the PSOE looks to place the PSOE to elevate the Leire Díez case to the same category - and, in the General Council of the Judiciary, the two blocks related to the traditional parties block the appointment of Manuel Marchena's replacement as president of the second chamber of the Supreme Court ~

"Unstoppable patrimonialization"

Precisely this fact highlights the "unstoppable patrimonialization" of institutions practiced by the PP and PSOE, analyzes Pablo Simón, a political scientist at the Carlos III University of Madrid. It happens with the media – Ayuso with Telemadrid and Sánchez with RTVE, he points out – and, above all, with the justice system. Why? The system of powers is designed so that the judiciary and the legislative-executive clash, which incentivizes parties to politicize justice and judicialize politics, he explains. This context means that, fundamentally, the debate is about where the "threshold of resignation" should be placed when a public official is indicted, taking into account that the possibility of lawfare, for which there are few oversight mechanisms.

With this portrait and continuing accusations of corruption, what prospects are there for democratic regeneration? However, Sánchez believes he can champion it for the remainder of his term.