Catalonia is headed toward starting 2026 without a budget due to the financing crisis.

BarcelonaThe mid-October period is now over, and the Catalan government has yet to open budget negotiations. The Catalan executive maintains that it is immersed in the "internal work" on the budget, which would be the first that Salvador Illa's government would present after spending his first year in office governing with the 2023 accounts left to him by former president Pere Aragonès. However, in Pallars, they admit that it will be necessary to unblock progress on the one-off financing for ERC to sit down and negotiate and not reject them, as it did last year. Then, the Republicans' slammed the door, with Oriol Junqueras having just taken over as party leader after the bitter internal war within the party, led the government to abandon the budget and focus on the credit supplements. Supplements that were approved with the votes of Esquerra and Comuns, whom it now seeks to entice into approving the budget. accounts that will increase their investments to 3 billion and will cut current spending on goods and services.

Now, the government's time to approve budgets in a timely manner is beginning to run out. Silvia Paneque, the government spokesperson and regional minister for Territory, acknowledged for the first time this week that "it seemed fair" to be able to reach January 1st with the financial statements in force, as the president had proposed. The fastest time a budget has been processed was in 2023, when all the deadlines for processing were adjusted in a record time of 37 days: the Aragonès government approved them in the executive council on February 2nd, the day on which the ministers' mandatory appearances in Parliament began, and on March 10th. The previous ones, led by former minister Jaume Giró, were approved after a 45-day process: the executive council approved them on November 9th, and they were approved on December 23rd, 2021, ready to come into force with the new year. It was the first time since 2010 that they were approved in a timely manner.

And what were the timings of the negotiations? Regarding the 2023 financial statements, contacts between the PSC and the ERC government began in early November 2022, but the agreement was not reached until February 1st of the following year. Therefore, there were three months of negotiations. With Comuns, the pact was closed in a month and a half. Taking the record deadline of 37 days as a reference, and even accepting the (remote) possibility that a plenary session could be held on December 31, this means that the government should approve the accounts in the executive council on November 25 at the latest. Furthermore, two parliamentary groups or a tenth of the deputies could request an opinion from the Council of Statutory Guarantees (CGE), something that Junts has already done on several occasions this term with executive decrees, and which did not occur in 2023. This would open a one-month period for the CGE to rule, parliamentary sources detail.

The ordinality, under discussion with ERC

At this time, one of the main variables that will determine whether or not a negotiation for accounts is opened is progress on individual financing. In fact, the Spanish Left maintains that it will not open any talks with the Catalan government until steps are taken on this issue. The ball is in the court of the Spanish government, specifically, of the First Vice President and Minister of Finance, María Jesús Montero, who must present her proposal to reform the entire regional financing system. At this point, according to some sources consulted, the challenge lies in how to guarantee ordinality or, at least, that Catalonia does not drop as many positions in the ranking of autonomous regions in terms of its contributions.

Furthermore, the Republicans also demand that the Spanish government accept their proposal to legally protect the Catalan Tax Agency (ATC) in collecting personal income tax. while the Government works to size it to assume these new functions with the horizon set for 2028. At this point, the ERC bill is registered in Congress: the party must decide when to bring it up for debate in the plenary session and whether it is willing to do so even without the support of the PSOE. With avenues of dialogue open between the two parties, the PSC maintains that it is working to reach an agreement, although the Socialists believe the new model should be finalized first, followed by its tax implementation.

Comunes: "No news"

The other essential leg of the agreement is the Commons. The condition that Jéssica Albiach's party has set in Isla for beginning discussions on the 2026 budget is that they fulfill outstanding commitments, especially in the area of housing. In particular, the registry of large landowners, which should allow for the monitoring (and fine of) of those who break the law, and the anti-eviction unit. The government announced it would approve the registry in October, but must reopen the public comment period because it has made changes following requests from the Commons. This could delay its approval until November, according to the sources consulted. There will also be no news until November at the earliest regarding the regulation of seasonal rentals and the protection of social housing: parliamentary sources suggest that the report between the PSC, the Commons, the ERC, and the CUP could be unblocked next week. If so, it could be included on the agenda for one of the four remaining votes until the end of the year.

On the other hand, a second meeting with Jéssica Albiach's party was scheduled for October to follow up on these agreements, but this meeting is still unscheduled. "There's no news," say Comuns sources, regarding the possibility of meeting soon with the Minister of Economy, Alícia Romero, to begin discussing figures. Parliamentary spokesperson David Cid already warned this week that the executive's "problems are brewing" and that it has the remainder of the month to complete. Comuns, however, is also aware that the government is waiting for the ERC's next move, the toughest nut to crack.