Andalusia votes in a context of absurdities
MadridThe day has arrived. This Sunday Andalusia votes in elections that are regional and that many will perceive as a genuine primary. But in a certain sense, it is also a final, an event in which morale and the possibilities with which the PP will have to face the rest of the legislature for the whole of Spain are at stake. If the current Andalusian president, Juan Manuel Moreno Bonilla, manages to regain his absolute majority, the bells will ring loud at Calle Génova in Madrid, where the popular party has its central headquarters. And if he does not obtain this result, they will also ring them, but they will emit a different, more subdued sound, because it will be necessary to go looking for Santiago Abascal, the leader of Vox, to try to guarantee a new parliamentary majority. And from previous experiences, it is already known that an operation of this kind is always a headache.
Andalusia will not change cycle, it will keep the same president, but the experiment is more complex, because it is about demonstrating that the PP can aspire to do without the far-right not only in a community essential for the autonomous system, but also later in general elections. In a way, this time the popular party's rival is not the PSOE, but Vox, which represents a stumbling block, rather than a potential ally. In fact, Moreno Bonilla has dedicated a large part of his campaign not so much to asking for votes as to begging for them. And all this has happened while the PP of Madrid and its president, Isabel Díaz Ayuso, appeared at the center of the parallel controversy over the urgent issue of Hernán Cortés's role in the conquest of America. For general elections, Ayuso is, in essence, a luxury for Pedro Sánchez, and a burden for Alberto Núñez Feijóo if the aim is to show that the PP is in a position to ask for votes and govern the country with moderation.
The management of the PSOE
The government and the PSOE, for their part, have known how to take advantage of the hantavirus ship crisis to strengthen themselves, demonstrating the capacity to make decisions quickly and effectively to execute them. The Adamuz accident left an image of poor management in the maintenance of the railway system. As happened a year ago, the general power outage without immediate explanations was extremely worrying. If the fundamental challenge has always been for Spain to function –as was said in the time of Felipe González–, the most recent event of the derailment of the Iryo company train, with its tragic toll of 46 fatalities, once again called into question the country's development model in terms of infrastructure and safety guarantees.
In October 2024, Spain had already made international news for the effects of the 'dana' storm, which caused 238 deaths. There are many lessons that can be drawn from this sequence of deficient functioning of the administrations. In short, surely the government's resolution in dealing with the problem of the ship MV Hondius was decisively influenced by the memory of the errors and the inoperability demonstrated by various public officials in previous episodes. This time with a special variant –forced by the circumstances of the case–, consisting of determination and little consideration when imposing the criterion of the central administration in the face of doubts from the president of the Canary Islands, Fernando Clavijo, about the risks his community could run.
The clash with Clavijo
Well, it is as true as it was necessary to act without delay as it is that we cannot congratulate ourselves on the lack of coordination among the administrations. Clavijo was wrong with his insistence on hindering the ship's arrival. In a situation of these characteristics, zero risk probably does not exist, but accusing the government of having hidden the existence of contagions was going too far. And the debate about the rats' swimming ability should have been saved for us. Unless we accept that it has been a good contribution to the anthology of absurdities of these days, in parallel to the discussion about the alleged abandonment in which Ayuso would have found herself in Mexico, with risk to her safety. This trip by the Madrid president has been a blunder. Especially at a time when Spain and Mexico are trying to rebuild relations that cannot be conditioned by a sterile controversy over events from the 16th century. Feijóo's patience with Ayuso is infinite, although understandable, given that he obviously has no other choice.
This time Sánchez did not even want to argue with the Madrid president. He dismissed the matter by saying that he did not want to argue with "someone who is a professional at creating problems." In contrast to the foreseeable bad results for the PSOE in Andalusia, for the government the most relevant thing remains the good path of the economy. Vice-president Carlos Cuerpo is performing well, and the decree-law to deal with the consequences of the war in Iran has moderated the increase in inflation, which remains a significant risk. Despite this, the adopted measures are beginning to be withdrawn, and from June 1, the tax reduction on electricity and natural gas will not be applied. On the other hand, regarding gasoline and diesel, they will be maintained at a minimum until the end of the same month.
It will be necessary to see to what extent the diligent action of the executive on the MV Hondius crisis will or will not be able to counterbalance the deficiencies shown in other areas. Harsh sentences are expected for the Ábalos-Koldo tandem. Regarding Andalusia, the effort of the socialist candidate, María Jesús Montero, has been meritorious, but it is very far from what the PSOE represented in this community. What Sánchez has guaranteed is the control of his party for the general elections. We still have no budget, despite the promises to present them, but with room for maneuver. In terms of housing legislation, rent extensions and fiscal measures to compensate landlords, there may be approaches with Junts that facilitate agreements. Extensive work is also being done on the Pope's visit, who will meet with Salvador Illa at the archbishopric. In parallel, Donald Trump confirms that he must travel to China with messages of cooperation. The anthology of nonsense may be starting to be controlled. All that is needed is for calm to now reach the other white house, that of Madrid.