2027: the year in which everything can change... also Pedro Sánchez

MadridIf there is one thing that has remained intact since the 16th and 17th centuries in Madrid, it is the mentideros. They are no longer at the Gradas de San Felipe, but rather information comes and goes in the corridors of Congress, the Senate, Moncloa, and beyond. And, as it could not be otherwise, at the point we have reached in the Spanish legislature, the great topic of conversation now is when the future elections will be. In reality, only Pedro Sánchez knows, since he is the one who has the prerogative to press the red button and he has only said two clear things: that they will be in 2027 and that he will not make them coincide with the municipal and regional elections on May 23rd. However, the scenarios are multiple if one takes into account the unknowns that remain to be resolved in 2026 and that next year is packed with decisive elections on both sides of the Atlantic. Before the end of the year, it will be determined whether a return of Carles Puigdemont changes the stability –for the better, Moncloa hopes– of the plurinational majority; whether the crisis in Ceuta is resolved and how the judicial calendar is configured, with the jury trial for Begoña Gómez as the culmination.

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A senior PSOE leader summarizes it clearly: the legislative term ends in July of next year and only a disruptive element, which would provide a window of opportunity for the socialists, could change Pedro Sánchez's plans to hold out until the end. Taking into account the evolution of the polls, especially after the massive arrival of migrants on July 30, proposing an immediate call for elections is implausible, since the PSOE is currently at its worst moment following the Ceuta crisis, which has been added to the Zapatero case and all the cases it has been dragging since the beginning of the legislative term.

Sánchez's decision, therefore, will take into account three very different plans: the evolution of internal politics –if he manages to strengthen himself in the final stretch of the legislative term–; the international climate –with the mid-term American elections as a thermometer of the state of the global far-right–; and the courts.

The global board

La Moncloa and the PSOE frame the general elections as a battle that goes beyond the state's borders, as Sánchez has been in charge of reminding everyone this week in New York. There, he staged an alliance with Mayor Zohran Mamdani, stood up Donald Trump at the UN General Assembly reception, and strengthened ties with countries that have a similar vision of international relations. For example, Sánchez was at the summit of partners in favor of multilateralism, sponsored by the EU, Canada, Australia, Barbados, Brazil, India, and Kenya. Or in the coalition for the rights of children and their protection in the age of AI, an initiative promoted by the Spanish government itself, in line above all with France.

The first relevant date on the global board will be November 3rd, at the American midterm elections—with the permission of Lula da Silva, an ally of Sánchez, who is playing for reelection in Brazil in October. Sánchez's circle believes that a defeat for the Republicans would slow down the rise of the global far-right, which until now has had Trump as its spearhead, and that this could turn the tide in their favor. In other words, their desire is to have sustained a progressive government while the rise of the ultra-right lasted, and for the ultra-right to have lost its aura of change by the next elections in Spain. The results in Sweden, where the Social Democrats recovered and the far-right fell, have been hopeful for the PSOE, despite the victories of Alternative for Germany in the states of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and Saxony-Anhalt.

And the fact is that the future of the European Union will be at stake in 2027. Spain, beyond being a progressive enclave, has advocated for more European integration, a fact that may change if a government of the PP and Vox arrives in Madrid next year, as they have shown themselves to be against many European policies.

It is not the only country with weight within the Union that could find itself facing such a change: on April 18th there are presidential elections in France –the second round will be May 2nd–, where all polls give victory to the Eurosceptic far-right of Marine Le Pen. Around the same dates, more regional elections will take place in Germany –with the risk of more victories for the ultra-right–; Finland will choose a new Parliament –where the Social Democrats lead the polls–; Lithuania, Czechia, and Estonia will also go to the polls with the Russian threat on the table; and Giorgia Meloni has yet to call elections also in 2027.

The electoral scenarios

When might it be most favorable, in this context, for Sánchez to call elections? There is a first window of opportunity between Sunday, February 28, and March 14, 2027. This was initially the scenario with the most options, prior to the Ceuta crisis, and which even socialist sources had promised to the PNB if the budget failed. But now at Moncloa, they are prescribing calm.

At this moment, the Minister of Finance, Arcadi España, has yet to show signs that the presentation of the accounts is imminent. Although the law establishes that it should be before October 1, knowledgeable sources place it more towards November, as interministerial talks have only just begun. By that time, the Spanish government calculates that Puigdemont's return will have already occurred and they will be able to know if they can count on Junts. The 'juntaires' do not want to hear about approving accounts, but the fact that they are now negotiating the housing decree gives the Spanish government hope, not only for the budget but also for the financing system.

In the first quarter of 2027, there would still be another window of opportunity before the municipal and regional elections: the first fortnight of April, specifically the 18th, although that would turn that Sunday into a super-election day throughout Europe: with elections in France, Finland, and regional elections in Germany (see map).

And what if he runs it until the end?

PSOE officials who are at risk of losing their positions in the May regional elections are demanding that the general elections be held earlier because they do not want to suffer, they say, the wear and tear of Sánchez. However, the Spanish president has no reason to listen to them –he has already ruled out the super Sunday as they were requesting– and the possibility of holding out until the summer remains open. For example, calling elections after Saint John's Eve, repeating the move of 2023. A date at the polls that could coincide with the jury trial of his wife, Begoña Gómez –still without a date– and which the PSOE sees as a boost for their base. "She has made herself loved," summarizes a PSOE source, who assures that the membership is already fully committed to denouncing that she is a victim of judicial persecution.