Will we be able to take advantage of American mistakes?

We are living, on a global scale, in a very special period, difficult to understand, full of surprises, and very worrying. The surprising decisions of the politicians who govern the most powerful states, and the indecisions in many other states, mean that we are drifting and without seeing a clear future. For months now, I have been commenting on what I think Europe's role should be in these circumstances, and now I would simply like to analyze what it could mean for us to take advantage of one of Donald Trump's recent and incomprehensible decisions. His radical change of policy in the field of science and technology is causing the expulsion of scientists and increasing great disillusionment among all those who work in the science sector in the United States. A survey of Nature A few days ago, he said that 75% of scientists are considering leaving the US. I find it hard to believe, but it paints a very serious picture. My concern stems from whether the EU, and more specifically Spain, will be able to capitalize on this huge American mistake and thus correct the policies of recent years that have caused Europe to fall further and further behind both the US and China. It seems we want to try, but it remains to be seen whether this will be as clear as they say and whether we'll know how to do it. Let's first look at where we're coming from.

1. A little personal history. In March 2000, the European Council, meeting in Lisbon with all EU heads of government, reached a momentous agreement: "[...] to establish as its objective the transformation of the EU into the most competitive and dynamic knowledge-based economy in the world, placing research and technological development policies at the heart of political action." The following July, I chaired an independent committee of experts that recommended several measures to achieve these objectives. I highlight three that I believe are the most essential.

The first was that over the next 10 years, the combined public and private R&D spending in the EU should grow to more than 3% of GDP. The second was that Member States should coordinate better to avoid duplication of efforts and share results among themselves. And the third was that policies should be implemented to ensure that research results do not remain in research centers and are transferred to the productive sector, thus enabling innovation in products and services—in other words, enabling R&D&I. For many countries, including Spain, this meant strong growth in private research and a significant increase in transfers from universities and public centers to companies.

Unfortunately, these measures have not been implemented over the past 20 years. Just look at the four R&D/GDP figures for 2023 and compare them with the desired 3%: the US, 3.59%; China, 2.56%; the EU, 2.25%; and Spain, 1.49%. It's no wonder we're falling behind, that the EU can't play a significant role in the global economy alongside the US and China, and that countries like Spain have economies based primarily on low-productivity services, such as low-quality tourism.

2. A problematic opportunity. This unexpected situation in the United States truly opens up opportunities to attract, and in many cases, recover, talent from Europe, in an attempt to improve the quality and productivity of our economies. I fully support these initiatives, both Catalan, Spanish, and European, to increase and improve our research capabilities, but I would like to make three observations.

a) We must first decide which areas we want to increase our capabilities in, considering whether it's better to strengthen those in which we already have a good level or add new ones. I believe it's better to take advantage of what we already have and take it to highly competitive levels. This applies to both research and business activities. The ultimate goal is not research, but the competitiveness of companies and the well-being of people.

b) We must consider that it is not enough to increase research work at the local level, but rather that we must do so with a European vision. This means that many programs, many objectives, and many funds must have this dimension. It also means that to better exploit opportunities, we must move beyond the model of single market to many other sectors, with a growing approximation to a federal model of our political reality.

c) Finally, I must say that I find it hard to believe that what is happening in the US, driven by the unseen interests behind Trump, could last for long. It could be fatal for them. Therefore, we must be prepared in case this changes again and the opportunity expires.