We've always heard that Barcelona can't afford to build any more. On one hand, the Besòs and Llobregat rivers; on the other, Collserola and the Mediterranean Sea. A clear example of the law of supply and demand, explained in any first-year economics course: more and more people want to live in the city, but there's no land to build on. But it's not just Barcelona. It's not even the pressure of tourism or Airbnb apartments. The problem goes deeper: we don't have enough available housing and they are becoming more and more expensive.
Of all the unregistered housing sales in Catalonia, more than 90% are secondhand. And for average prices that are only surpassed by those in the Basque Country, Madrid, and, of course, the Balearic Islands. However, unlike other regions, prices here have not yet reached pre-bursting levels. Prices are higher and more volatile than the Spanish average. And new construction, despite picking up slightly, is still far from meeting market needs.
At the same time, the number of families has continued to grow. Immigration plays a key role, but so do new forms of cohabitation: separations that create new households, or young people who would like to become independent but are faced with prices that their income and lack of savings do not allow them to afford. All this at a time when the population in Catalonia is at an all-time high and foreign demand is strongly concentrated in certain areas.
The result is a market with unrelenting demand and an extraordinarily rigid supply. An ever-increasing tsunami against increasingly weaker dams. This isn't about returning to the runaway construction rates of the bubble, but it's clear that as long as the available housing stock doesn't increase, it will be very difficult to reverse the current dynamic. Measures such as rental assistance or price controls may temporarily alleviate the situation for certain groups, but they don't address the root of the problem. Without more housing, the imbalance between supply and demand will continue to strain the market.
In the coming years, house prices are likely to continue rising, albeit more moderately and with variations depending on the region. The monetary context is currently in favor: lower interest rates create a somewhat more favorable environment for those looking to buy, which may provide some relief to the market. But, at the same time, demand remains very strong—both domestic and from foreign buyers—and this makes it difficult to imagine a widespread decline. In any case, what may happen is that the increases will slow down, not disappear.
A structural characteristic of our country is that those who can afford it invest in real estate. Housing has become a haven for savings and investment, but this further narrows the door for many households. Among young people, more than half need help from their families to pay their rent or mortgage; without that network, access is impossible. The result is a wealth divide: inheriting—or not—an apartment will mark the inequality of the next decade. Not only are we not building enough, but we're also not generating the housing that families truly need: accessible, affordable, and designed for living in. As long as there isn't enough housing, the dream of owning a home will remain a privilege.
