What happens to gold?

Gold is back at record highs, over €4,200 per ounce. Since July of last year, it has experienced a meteoric rise. Those who invested back then have almost doubled their initial investment. Just three months earlier, a wholesaler in the jewelry sector recommended I invest in gold. I didn't because I never speculate or invest in things that don't offer clear returns.

I was wrong. It should have doubled. Why did it spike? Because the world is in turmoil. When the world is uncertain, gold rises. There's something almost primal about this reaction. Gold doesn't pay dividends. It doesn't generate cash flow. It doesn't produce anything on its own. And yet, every time the economy becomes uncertain, it reappears as a safe haven. As if, beneath the technological trappings of the 21st century, we're still a civilization that needs to touch something solid to sleep soundly.

Gold is limited. Literally. Much of the gold we mine today arrived on Earth after asteroid impacts millions of years ago. Those collisions triggered reactions that trapped certain heavy metals in the Earth's crust. The amount isn't infinite. It is what it is. New deposits are discovered, yes. But they are becoming increasingly difficult to find and extract. This, too, contributes to its value.

In recent years, many have compared gold to cryptocurrencies: assets that don't offer explicit returns and whose value depends on someone being willing to exchange them for cash. The comparison is tempting but incomplete. Gold is not just a social convention. It has industrial uses. It's present in high-precision electronic components, medical technology, satellites, and, of course, jewelry. It has real demand beyond financial speculation.

The recent surge isn't just psychological. Central banks are buying gold at levels not seen in decades. They're diversifying their reserves, reducing their dependence on the dollar, and seeking tangible assets in an environment where global public debt is skyrocketing. Added to this is individual investors who, faced with inflation or geopolitical tension, are choosing a precious metal over a volatile chart on their screens.

Just because something is at its peak doesn't mean it can't go higher. Uncertainty hasn't disappeared. On the contrary. Open conflicts, trade rivalries, rising debt, polarized elections. The fuel that powers gold is still there.

Will it keep going up? I don't know. Economists analyze trends, understand incentives, and measure risks. But predicting the exact price of an asset is another matter entirely. For my part, after that prudent (or perhaps fearful) decision, I won't be investing again. If it doubles again, I promise not to look at the chart.