Trump: The 'Madman Theory' on Steroids
Donald Trump has not been in the White House for even a month and he has already turned the world order upside down. He has revived old obsessions: flight buy greenland In order to secure its natural resources, it has targeted the Panama Canal due to Chinese influence and has revived its strategy of economic threats through tariffs. It continues to confront one of its historical allies, Canada, by repeatedly suggesting the possibility of annexing it as the 51st state. Finally, it has made clear the return of the madman theory with its crazy proposal that US occupies Gaza, expels Palestinian population and turn the territory into a kind of "Middle Eastern Riviera."
Trump has repeatedly stated, both privately and publicly, that he likes other world leaders to see him as unpredictable or downright crazy, because he believes this gives him an advantage in international negotiations. This strategy, known as the madman theory, is not new. It has been used for decades by various heads of state, especially authoritarian ones, and has its origins in Machiavelli, who in 1517 already argued that, in certain situations, "it is very wise to feign madness." The modern version of this theory took shape during the Cold War and it was Richard Nixon who gave it its name, convinced that making the enemy believe that he was capable of anything, even using nuclear weapons, would give him an advantage in the Vietnam War. However, it did not work for Nixon: Hanoi did not believe him and the war dragged on even longer. The same could be said of Trump, who already followed this strategy during his first term.
For example, with North Korea, the US president went from promising "fire and fury" to declaring himself in love with Kim Jong-un, but the Pyongyang regime did not give up its nuclear program. As for Iran, he withdrew from the nuclear pact, ordered the killing of Soleimani and made unbelievable threats against Tehran, but only succeeded in getting the regime to speed up its uranium enrichment program.
However, Trump is once again betting on unpredictability and threats. This week he started negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, convinced that he can force a resolution of the conflict, but without clarifying how or with what objectives. On the one hand, he hinted that he could withdraw economic support for Kiev; on the other, he suggested tougher sanctions against Moscow. This ambiguity is also reflected in the contradictory messages of his government. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said it was "unrealistic" to think Ukraine could regain its pre-2014 borders or join NATO. But the next day he said everything was on the table and that it was ultimately up to Trump.
Chaos theory
In the case of the Ukrainian war, Trump's actions are explained by chaos theory. Inspired by natural science, it relies on uncertainty and disorder to disorient adversaries through contradictory messages, sudden changes of position and artificial crises. Rather than a negotiating plan, Trump seems to trust that his ambiguity will force someone to give in first. But this tactic, like that of the madman, carries significant risks: if no one moves or if the adversaries do not consider his strategy credible, the conflict may not only drag on but worsen. Moreover, chaos can trigger unforeseen reactions that, rather than leading to a resolution, could lead to an escalation of the conflict or increased tensions in the long term.
