Trump's threats in Europe
Donald Trump's voracious appetite could end up devouring the European Union as we know it. Former French Commissioner Thierry Breton, one of those who most fiercely confronted the Silicon Valley tech giants during Ursula von der Leyen's first term, railed this weekend against the idea of a fearful Europe subservient to the United States. Breton shared, on his social media platform X, a photograph of the tariff agreement signed between Trump and the EU last summer in Scotland and quoted one of the many sayings attributed to Winston Churchill: "You were given the choice between war and dishonor. He chose dishonor, and now he shall have war." For the moment, Trump's repertoire for the EU already includes trade war, political warfare, and territorial threats. On Sunday, Trump threatened tariffs of up to 25% on the eight European and NATO-allied countries that sent a small exploratory military contingent to Greenland as a sign of commitment to the mineral-rich Arctic island, which the United States wants to annex. In response, French President Emmanuel Macron, with the support of German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, called on the European Union to activate its most powerful trade weapon, the so-called anti-coercion instrument, which can restrict US companies' access to the European single market. But the 27 member states were unable to reach an agreement on the measure on Sunday night due to the reluctance of Italy, Poland, and many Eastern European countries, which fear that Washington might retaliate by withdrawing military support for Ukraine—support that is already largely based on the Union's economic commitment.
Brussels' potential response to Trump's hostility has, for the moment, been neutralized by European disunity itself. The EU is trapped in a state of perpetual denial. It refuses to acknowledge the failure of its strategy of subservience, which Trump has interpreted as carte blanche to impose his will. dictatedAnd, at the same time, it also denies itself the right to use the instruments already at its disposal to withstand the pressure exerted on it from across the Atlantic. Although the Commission continues to insist that "the most responsible form of leadership is restraint," rhetorical prudence need not be accompanied by political capitulation.
Trump thrives on a power vacuum, ambiguity, and fear. And in this new reality of spheres of influence defended through military aggression and defiance of international law, European restraint translates into isolation, weakness, and incapacity. After Ukraine, Greenland has come next. The risk of transforming the exception to territorial occupation into a new, real threat is growing. a sovereignty of the EU member states that goes far beyond European territoryAnd there is a significant part of the EU that still interprets European security with the reality of 2022 and has not understood that this threat comes not only from Russia but also from its main military ally in NATO.
To the ideological war against the EU, already declared by Vice President JD Vance at last year's Munich Security Conference and confirmed by the willingness to interfere politically proclaimed in the new National Security Strategy, has now been added the territorial challenge—although Greenland is not part of the European Union, it certainly marks its borders.
Trump's strategy will not stop. Imperial aggression is in a hurry ahead of midterm elections that will test the White House's winning narrative and its impact on Americans' wallets. With Greenland's future still uncertain, the next assault of Trumpian interventionism in Europe will likely be electoral, with the first event on the calendar being the parliamentary elections scheduled for next April in Hungary. There, Fidesz, Prime Minister Viktor Orbán's party, faces the center-right Tisza party, led by P. For the first time in a long time, Orbán, the great European "statesman" idolized by the American far right, lacks a guaranteed victory. Trump has acknowledged his desire to destroy European institutions, in collaboration with his loyal far-right allies, and has already demonstrated the extent of his determination. This is a crucial moment for the EU. Political restraint will not be enough to halt Trump's voracious appetite.