In form, the conclave seems remote and ceremonious, spiritual, almost magical. However, its dynamics are the same as those in the business world when a founder, or a great charismatic CEO, leaves his position. I would say that the Church faces at least four major challenges in this transition.
The first is the difficulty of ensuring continuity after a very personal leadership. As in companies where everything revolves around the personality of the founder, the Church relies heavily on the figure of the Pope as a global, spiritual, and political reference. He leaves, and differences that were previously latent suddenly emerge.
The second challenge is holding a global organization together. It's not easy to speak the same language—either figuratively or literally—in Latin America, Europe, Asia, or Africa. The Church is universal. And that's exactly what many multinationals experience, as they must deal with increasingly disparate local cultures, values, and expectations. If I already have a hard time coordinating teams from two neighboring countries, I can't even imagine what it's like on a global scale.
The third challenge is the need to rejuvenate without breaking. The Church, like so many mature brands, needs to connect with new generations. But it can't afford to lose its identity along the way. This is a real tension inherent to major brands: how to retain their soul, but update their language, channels, and priorities? It's not just a marketing issue. It's a fundamental problem.
And the fourth, perhaps the most delicate, risk that the succession process becomes a power-sharing process rather than a project. When there's no clear roadmap, successions tend to devolve into internal struggles. Each faction pulls in its own direction, trying to impose its short-term vision and losing sight of the common good. I've often seen this in boardrooms where the debate was more about chairs than strategy.
I believe that the upcoming conclave will not just elect a person. It will, in a sense, elect a strategic direction. The fundamental question is not just who, but also where.
