When I was eight years old, the journalist Alfredo Amestoy, with his characteristic hairstyle and glasses, presented a television program called 35 million Spaniards. Subtitle: looking at the peseta. How great his program was!
The interesting thing about this memory is not so much the number itself, but that the number was so stable and the population moved so slowly that a television program could be named after the number of inhabitants of the country.
The reality is that Spain needed 15 years to go from 30 to 35 million. And another 25 years to go from 35 to 40 million. That's five million more in a quarter of a century.
Well, Spain will surpass 50 million inhabitants by 2026, according to INE projections. In the last 25 years, we've added ten million more. Double the population growth of the previous era. Where we grew by five million, we're now growing by ten million. In just one generation.
It's striking to see this demographic evolution in a country with one of the lowest birth rates in the world. How can it be explained? Only two factors: increased life expectancy and the arrival of immigrants. Two social phenomena that have completely transformed the country. Because this Spain of 50 million has nothing to do with the Spain of Alfredo Amestoy's 35 million.
We're about to cross a symbolic barrier. 50 million Spaniards. That's nothing.
The new Spain is longer-lived, more diverse, more urban, and more complex. This growth, far from being a mere statistical figure, is a challenge. A social challenge, an economic challenge, and a political challenge. With 50 million inhabitants, Spain is becoming a country that can no longer be managed in the same way.
I'm convinced that in the coming years we'll see significant changes in the system of political representation. Parties, which emerged as mechanisms for popular expression, have barely changed beyond ideological extremes or territorial inroads. Ideology and nation. But social change is moving in a different direction. And sooner or later it will be reflected at the ballot box.
Parties will emerge that represent groups that are currently diffuse but numerous. Parties of seniors, self-employed workers, residents. Because demographic growth transforms not only statistics, but also interests, priorities, and ways of representing oneself.
50 million requires rethinking everything.
