Political storm, economic boom?
We are experiencing a paradoxical start to the year. Politics—especially international politics—is increasingly unstable: open conflicts, blurred alliances, and decisions that strain the global order. At the national level, parliamentary fragility and the lack of a budget hinder any significant reform. And yet, the economy seems to be progressing with surprising calm. Markets remain stable, and growth, both in the United States and in Catalonia and Spain, has exceeded many forecasts.
The gap between political noise and economic data is not new, but it is particularly striking now. Internationally, Europe is witnessing the blurring of basic certainties: it is not always clear who is an ally and who is a rival, nor what rules govern political action. Likewise, processes of political change in countries subjected for decades to authoritarian regimes raise expectations, but also uncomfortable questions about what kind of stability is being fostered and at what democratic costs.
Given this scenario, the economy seems to be looking elsewhere. In the United States, many predicted a sharp slowdown as a result of increased tariffs and stricter immigration policies. However, for the moment, these effects have not materialized. The US economy has continued to grow, and the Catalan and Spanish economies have shown remarkable resilience, even without budgets or with a clearly exhausted system of regional financing.
Two interpretations can be drawn from this paradox. The first is that modern economies have a certain capacity to function outside the political fog, at least in the short term. Businesses and households continue to make decisions, and many shocks dissipate before reaching everyday life. In that sense, not everything that appears to be an immediate political crisis ends up translating into an economic crisis.
The second interpretation is less reassuring. The relationship between political disorder and economic problems is usually strong but rarely immediate. The costs are often shifted over time. In the case of tariffs, for example, many companies have absorbed part of the impact to avoid losing market share. But that strategy has its limits. Similarly, severely restricting immigration may not have visible effects in the short term, but it ultimately strains economies that depend on population growth and labor mobility.
The political storm doesn't always shake the economy immediately. But it usually does eventually. Perhaps not today, or tomorrow. And we hope that, at least on this side of the Atlantic, it will be with less intensity. But uncertainty has a cost, and trusting that it won't take its toll can be a risky gamble.
