Plunged into uncertainty

This isn't the first time Spanish politics has begun to boil over, shifting from its liquid state (it was never solid) to a gaseous one. The phase transition occurs inside a pressure cooker, whose only outlet is the 2027 elections. Some want to overheat the pot so much that it can't hold up until then and explode prematurely.

Something very similar happened during Felipe González's last term, between 1993 and 1996. Those were years of great political intensity in which the activity of the sewers repeatedly surfaced. The scandal surrounding the director of the Civil Guard, Luis Roldán, the trials of the GAL (National Action Group of the Left), Mario Conde's blackmail of the government, the illegal wiretapping by the Cesid (now the CNI) that led to the resignation of the agency's president (Emilio Alonso Manglano) and the vice president and defense minister (Narcís Serra and Julián García Vargas)—all this and much more fueled the deafening noise of a right-wing media front that sought to create maximum social alarm.

Something similar also happened during José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero's first term in office. Although there were no accusations of corruption at the time, various laws and initiatives (the one on same-sex marriage, the one on historical memory, the reform of the Statute of Autonomy, the peace process with ETA) were used to create the impression that the constitutional order and the unity of Spain were under threat. Zapatero was accused of being a civil war man, of putting the Second Republic before the consensus of the Transition. The opposition resorted to sensationalism, and the conservative media once again delivered.

And it's happening now, in Pedro Sánchez's current term, for the third time. This time, it seemed there wasn't enough fuel to feed the fire. The economy is doing reasonably well, and considerable progress has been made in social protection (despite the housing crisis). However, a formidable uproar has ensued, combining politically motivated judicial and police activism (lawfare) with the surfacing of corruption schemes within the internal organization of the PSOE (the Ábalos case and now the Cerdán case). Of all the attempts made so far, they have discovered a rich vein of corruption within the organizational secretariat of the Socialist Party that could destroy the legislature and the honorability of the organization. In this sense, it seems that the right's strategy has worked. By firing accusations in all directions, it seems that the PSOE has thought they were all false, and now it turns out that a couple of them hit the mark. It's incomprehensible that, given such a close connection between Koldo García and Santos Cerdán, the Socialists haven't investigated further.

In the three historical cases mentioned, the gaseous state was reached by the right's indigestion after the electoral defeat. In 1993, they believed they had won the elections, and they lost. In 2004, they thought they would have won an absolute majority, but they went into opposition due to their mismanagement of the 11-M attack. In 2023, most polls predicted they would win with Vox, but they fell short of 175 seats. This explains the fury unleashed in all three cases. There's a rush to return to power, of course, but above all, anger at having lost it when they believed it was so close.

Although the feeling of vertigo and the government losing control of the agenda is spreading, beneath the surface, in public opinion, changes are slow. The electorate is less fickle than many believe. In 1996, despite all the scandal, the PP led the PSOE by fewer than 300,000 votes. In 2008, after a hellish opposition term, the PSOE won more votes than in 2004. Between 2019 and 2023, the "anti-Sanchista" campaign intensified, which didn't prevent the left-wing coalition from reestablishing itself, despite some wear and tear, to the despair of Núñez Feijóo and his followers, who couldn't believe the result.

Now we don't know what will happen. Until now, the most reliable polls detected a strong stability in the PSOE vote despite the surrounding noise. Much will depend on the government's reaction. It's a step forward that the president has apologized, but discouragement will likely spread to a large part of the progressive electorate. If there wasn't enough uncertainty in the world, now we have a new dose.