It's just chance, stupid!
We can't expect Trump to have read the classics, but we could at least hope he hadn't purged the entire American intelligence service. "War is a chain of accidental events that no man can control," Tolstoy wrote in War and PeaceIn his fresco on the Napoleonic Wars, Tolstoy insisted that conflicts rarely follow the plans of generals or rulers. Armies move according to strategies and doctrines, but history often advances through unexpected deviations: miscalculations, rash actions, accidents, or strokes of luck. War is, to a large extent, the realm of the unpredictable. This is why wars are so difficult to control once they have begun. Every move has new consequences, every response provokes a possible escalation, and every gesture can trigger unforeseen events. Wars spread geographically, politically, economically. And here we are. The power of uncertainty is especially visible today in the Middle East. Since the attack of October 7, 2023, the region has been undergoing one of its most profound reconfigurations, and in this scenario, the US and Israeli attack on Iran is central and has unpredictable consequences.
It is worth remembering the warning with which the academic Vali Nasr opens his book Iran's Grand Strategy"The West's understanding of Iran's strategy is desperately inadequate and dangerously outdated. The West continues to view Iran through the lens of the 1979 Revolution and the central role played by religion and the clergy."
According to Nasr, Iranian foreign policy stems from a strategic will for long-term resistance against the American and Zionist enemy. This strategy aims to erode American hegemony and ensure the country's security and regional influence. The objective is not so much to militarily defeat the US or Israel as to resist and erode the power of adversaries over time, eventually becoming an ally. Those who defend this position base their argument on the effects of the Iran-Iraq War (1980-1988), a devastating conflict that profoundly shaped the Iranian regime and society. That war consolidated the military, security, and repressive institutions that today form the core of the regime and generated the narrative of "sacred defense" that justifies regional networks and allied militias. Now, according to several analysts, Iran has adopted a two-phase tactic. First, it has absorbed attacks from the US and Israel while responding with drones and lower-capacity missiles, aiming to exhaust the adversaries' missile defense systems. According to these same analysts, it is keeping more powerful weapons in reserve for use in later stages of the conflict, once the economic strategy has taken effect. This is the most innovative and lethal dimension: putting pressure on the global economy by attacking energy and maritime infrastructure in the Persian Gulf.
The disruption of maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is already causing increases in gas and oil prices on volatile and volatile stock markets. Geography reinforces this capacity for pressure because Iran controls the entire northern shore of the Persian Gulf, from where it threatens neighboring energy facilities. The threat would increase if the Houthi allies in the Red Sea were to attack the artery that connects global trade to the Suez Canal.
Iran will be yet another asymmetric war in which the US could become bogged down. In Iraq and Syria—not to mention Vietnam—relatively simple weapons entangled powerful armies. In the current scenario, drones, naval mines, and short-range missiles could have incalculable repercussions on global supply chains and energy prices, and therefore also on the prices of many products, including food.
What is the way out? Trump will only react in the markets. He will not yield based on any logic other than a severe price crisis in the US or the impact on his business dealings with the Persian Gulf monarchies. If gasoline prices skyrocket in the US, perhaps an opening will appear to end this strategic folly with its unpredictable consequences and escalation.
In short, Iran is betting on a long-term strategy: to resist, wear down its adversaries, and strengthen itself as a power. The US is betting on a "short war." But wars don't follow a plan, and with the anger unleashed, no one can fully control them.