Is the EU at a point of no return?

The countries of the European Union (EU) have approved a historic tightening of migration rules, including the creation of "return centers" outside the EU and a new solidarity mechanism based on fines. This is a radical shift that involves third countries, and we cannot foresee its short-term consequences from the perspective of the geopolitics of migration in Europe. What was approved in Brussels is a restrictive inflection point motivated by internal political pressure from the far right, despite the recent drop in irregular entries. In short: more authoritarianism to manage, both externally and internally.

Externally, the agreement establishes "return centers"—no longer "reception centers"—located outside the EU's borders, and allows for the expulsion of migrants to countries considered "safe," even if they are not their country of origin. In fact, calling them that is a euphemism: it is a deportation policy without nuance. This is a huge step forward for an EU increasingly detached from its founding values. Internally, the agreement introduces a system of "mandatory solidarity," a "solidarity of payment": states that refuse to take in asylum seekers will have to pay €20,000 per person. This package not only closes the door to genuine solidarity, but also legalizes and institutionalizes a policy of containment and outsourcing that the EU has been practicing covertly for years. The reform is profoundly misguided and dangerous, not only for people on the move, but for the European project itself. 1. Outsourcing and legal vacuum of human rights. The creation of "return centers" outside the EU and the possibility of sending migrants to "safe" third countries is a way of shifting responsibility and creating a legal vacuum where international protection is diluted. The experience of Australia and Denmark is clear: these centers do not discourage departures, but they do multiply suffering, legal uncertainty, and human rights violations outside European jurisdiction. Europe exports its borders and imports fewer responsibilities.

2. The explicit recognition of the failure of solidarity. The new system of fines turns the right to asylum into a transferable commodity. The EU is shifting from solidarity based on welcoming refugees to solidarity based on payment. The message is alarming: it is acceptable to pay for failing to fulfill the ethical and legal obligations of welcoming refugees. Asylum seekers are transformed into an economic burden, when they should be considered rights-holders. This sets a dangerous precedent that institutionalizes a lack of solidarity.

3. Concessions on the far-right agenda. The reform is being sold as a way to "regain control," but it is, in fact, a direct concession to the language and logic of the European right and far right. And this is happening at a time when irregular entries have fallen by 20%. It is not a response to an emergency, but a response to the electoral climate. Instead of creating legal pathways, investing in smart mobility management, or committing to effective inclusion models, the EU is opting for a policy of fear and closure. A small, distrustful Europe, obsessed with strength, instead of seeing diversity as a structural resource for its future.

The new migration pact is leading us down two deeply worrying paths: international cooperation that ceases to pursue democratization and becomes an instrument of security and containment—fueling authoritarianism abroad and eroding values at home—and the entry into a "post-human rights" phase, in which national logic prevails. It is a shift that could irreversibly change the course of the European project, and one that could go too far before we realize the extent to which it has transformed it.