Gary Becker and the economics of crime

These days, news about shootings, organized gangs, and knives in the city of Barcelona are accumulating. I don't know if we are facing a change in trend or simply more media visibility. But they have all reminded me of an economist who received the Nobel Prize for formulating a surprising question: what if part of crime could be analyzed as an economic decision?Gary Becker revolutionized economics by applying his tools to areas that until then seemed reserved for psychology or sociology. He studied discrimination, family, education, and also crime. His approach was as simple as it was provocative: many people who commit crimes make, consciously or intuitively, a calculation between the expected benefits and costs of their future action.This cost depends on three factors. Firstly, on the benefit that the crime provides. Secondly, on the probability of being arrested and convicted. And, thirdly, on the severity of the penalty if punishment is ultimately imposed.Imagine a thief who expects to get a big haul and believes they have very little chance of being caught. Even if the penalties are high, the risk they perceive may continue to pay off for them. On the other hand, if they consider it very likely to end up before a judge, the incentive to commit a crime decreases considerably. From this perspective, police and judicial effectiveness can exert a deterrent effect as important as the toughening of penalties.Naturally, not all crimes respond to a rational calculation. There are impulsive aggressions, mental health problems, emotional violence, or behaviors difficult to explain through economic incentives. Becker never maintained the contrary. His theory refers above all to those crimes in which there is planning, organization, and an expectation of benefit: robberies, bank heists, store assaults…Therefore, when news about criminal gangs or organized crime appears, it is worth remembering this theory. The question is no longer just how many crimes are committed, but also what incentives those who commit them perceive. Do they consider the benefit to be worth the risk? Do they believe the probability of being caught is low? Do they perceive criminal consequences as a real cost?Economics does not replace law or criminology. It offers another way of observing the same phenomenon. And herein lies the value of Becker's contributions. More than half a century later, his theory continues to invite us to ask ourselves these questions because, if part of delinquency responds to incentives, rethinking these incentives can be the first step towards designing more effective policies.