For the first time, a new right-wing majority is consolidating in the European Parliament, with the European People's Party (EPP) flirting with far-right groups. Last week, the conservatives managed to pass the package of measures proposed by the European Commission to simplify the regulatory burden, supported by the most right-wing groups in the chamber, in exchange for cutting back on rules that require large companies to be held accountable for environmental and human rights issues.
This is not the first time this has happened. A year ago, shortly after the start of a legislative term that has further strengthened the seats of the three far-right groups in the European Parliament, the EPP allied itself with the Conservatives and Reformists—the group of Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni—and the Patriots group—which supports the Hungarian Vi-Hungarian Vi-binding resolution of support for Venezuelan opposition leader Edmundo González. This new alternative majority was the first manifestation of the balancing act that has emerged in European politics. It's a strategy that, for a long time, had internally divided conservatives, but which is now becoming clearer. The key to turning the tide lies with the German Christian Democrats, who lead the EPP and the strategy of rapprochement with the radical right.
Once again, the German CDU is playing both sides. While Chancellor Friedrich Merz advocates isolating Alternative for Germany (AfD), which is eroding its political ground, his Bavarian colleague in the European Parliament, the Christian Social Union's Manfred Weber, ultimately prevailed with his "variable geometries" thesis. The AfD is now the second-largest party in the Bundestag, and some polls even place it in the lead in voting intentions. While German intelligence services document the radicalization of the party she leads, Alice Weidel's electoral support continues to grow. The debate over whether or not to maintain the "firewall"—as the "cordon sanitaire" strategy that for decades prevented coalitions with the far right is known in Germany—is dividing a weakened Christian Democracy party. Regional elections are scheduled for next year in the states of Baden-Württemberg, Rhineland-Palatinate, Saxony-Anhalt, Mecklenburg-Western Berlin, and Berlin. In all of them, the AfD is expected to obtain double-digit results. In fact, in the two eastern states of Saxony and Meknesburg, the far right is close to an absolute majority in the voting projections. In this Germany with a shrinking political center, the country is reviving nostalgia for an Angela Merkel, of tour With her recently published memoirs, she reconnects with the moderate tone, rationality, confidence, and a certainty that accompany the figure of the former chancellor. Although her review of her policies—including those related to Russia and China—reveals a few shortcomings and no self-criticism, Merkel's public presence accentuates the sense of emptiness in this European Union bereft of credible leadership and also exacerbates internal divisions within the CDU.
The European Union has lost its firewalls. The center-right has been overtaken by the far right in Germany, France, Italy, Belgium, and the United Kingdom. The parliamentary maneuvering in the European Parliament is yet another consequence of the political momentum of forces that have become indispensable for the governance of nineteen of the twenty-seven EU countries. The consolidation of the increasingly heterogeneous European radical right-wing forces has solidified, above all, in the member states, and their influence is clearly visible in the Council of the EU. When the heads of state and government of the Union meet, there is no cordon sanitaire or firewall. Major political decisions are made unanimously, and the strength of these new majorities has been transforming the EU agenda for some time. Only in 2000, when the coalition government between the Austrian far right and Wolfgang Schüssel's Christian Democrats was being negotiated, did the 14 countries that then comprised the EU decide to diplomatically isolate the new Austrian government for six months. This was the only time—the first and last—that symbolic measures were taken. Since then, several far-right-led coalitions and governments have emerged in Europe, which the EU members have come to accept as part of an anomalous normality. The so-called "nuclear option"—which contemplates the suspension of certain membership rights, such as the right to vote, in the event of a serious and persistent violation of fundamental values—has become ineffective because it requires a unanimous vote from all other member states, and with current majorities, this is unthinkable.
The only instrument to limit the overwhelming radical wave is political will, and this has been waning for some time, a victim of electoral fear and the necessity of numbers.
