Europe must prepare for the worst

What if the main threat to the European Union was not Russian aggression, Chinese exports, or US President Donald Trump, but rather came from within the bloc?

Such a scenario becomes more likely every day as illiberal and nationalist forces grow stronger ahead of elections in Spain, France, Poland, and several German states. If these parties come to power, they could hollow out the EU from within, undermining its fundamental values and hindering collective action. Defenders of the bloc in its current liberal-democratic form must recognize the coming storm and be prepared with new political strategies and institutional arrangements.

For decades, European integration has been based on the assumption that, despite recurring crises, member states were committed to the survival and success of the EU. This assumption no longer holds. Anti-European forces now question not only EU policies, but also the underlying logic of integration, from shared sovereignty to common rules.

But instead of seeking to dissolve or leave the bloc, Europe's far-right and populists have adopted another approach: neutralizing the EU as a political force by weakening supranational institutions, re-establishing the primacy of national sovereignty, and expanding veto powers. This would reduce the EU to a negotiation space between national governments.

Take as an example Alternative for Germany (AfD), which recently presented its "new pact for Europe" to the European Parliament. The AfD's plan proposes abolishing the directly elected Parliament and replacing it with a body of delegates appointed by national Parliaments. It also proposes drastically cutting the powers of the European Commission, restricting the primacy of EU law, transforming the Court of Justice of the European Union into an intergovernmental arbitration body, and allowing Germany to opt out of common EU policies. In the same vein, Hungary's Mathias Corvinus Collegium, a think tank funded by Viktor Orbán's government before his removal, called last year for the dissolution of the EU and the establishment of a new intergovernmental "European Economic Union".

If applied, these strategies would destroy the EU as we know it. Great achievements, such as the single market, a common currency, free movement, independent institutions, and the rules that protect citizens, businesses, and fundamental rights, would be in danger. The collective capacity to provide security, maintain prosperity, and address shared challenges would be lost. In an era marked by geopolitical confrontation, economic insecurity, technological disruption, and democratic regression, a paralyzed EU would leave Europeans more vulnerable and less capable of shaping their future.

This means that we must look beyond the EU and consider the future of what I call EUropa, a broader concept that encompasses the EU, the European continent, and possible alternative forms of cooperation. More than a geographical or institutional classification, EUropa reflects the ambition to preserve and advance what has made European integration unique: sovereign democracies that share power, maintain common rules, and build their future together. It offers a positive vision of a bloc that is more capable and prepared for crisis and the future, which protects its citizens, invests in common public goods, and defends European interests and values.

The first step to make this vision a reality is to defend and reform the existing Union. This requires strengthening the EU's capacity to defend its fundamental values and institutions against internal threats. The EU should be equipped with more effective mechanisms, including stronger forms of financial conditionality, to respond to systematic attempts by member states to undermine its democratic and supranational foundations.

At the same time, a coalition of those willing to do so must be prepared to deepen joint integration, preferably within the framework of the EU and, if necessary, outside of it. In an increasingly heterogeneous EU, unity cannot mean uniformity.

The EU treaties provide for enhanced cooperation, an instrument that allows a minimum of nine member states to carry out advanced integration. Willing governments should use this instrument more ambitiously and, where legally possible, go a step further by committing to make decisions by majority among themselves, rather than allowing individual countries to inhibit collective action.

When these instruments prove insufficient, the willing countries will have to cooperate outside the EU framework. These agreements must remain exceptional, open to others, compatible with EU law, transparent, subject to democratic scrutiny, and aimed at eventual integration into the Union. They should strengthen supranational integration, not consolidate intergovernmental negotiation, as anti-EU forces advocate.

And in the event that illiberal and nationalist forces incapacitate the EU to such an extent that significant reform or deeper integration becomes impossible, the pro-European camp should consider the creation of a new supranational entity among the EU states that are willing, and potentially others that are not part of it. It is clear that such extreme action should be a last resort, and the risks would be considerable, ranging from deeper divisions to weaker institutions. These risks, however, must be weighed against the potentially greater danger of an EU that is fundamentally incapable of safeguarding and advancing European integration.

Preparing for a future like this requires political capacity to act. Think tanks, independent media, foundations, businesses, and civil society organizations should build a stronger and better-connected pro-European liberal democratic ecosystem. Learning from the long-term strategies and organizational capacities of illiberal forces, without imitating their methods or compromising democratic principles, such an ecosystem should develop attractive visions of Europe, foster public debate, identify opportunities for deeper integration, and prepare credible alternatives in case of growing dysfunction.

Those seeking to weaken the EU's supranational foundations are already preparing their radical schemes, such as the AfD's "new agreement." Pro-European forces cannot afford to be less imaginative, determined, or prepared. The future of Europe cannot be left in the hands of those obsessed with rolling back integration. It is imperative to defend what has already been achieved and imagine how to move it forward. Europe must prepare for the worst to avoid it.

Copyright Project Syndicate