EU and USA: will it be the same again?

2 min
Two citizens manipulating a giant flag of the United States.
27/09/2026 - 21:01 h
Economist
Unverified ENG translation
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I have been wondering for some time what will happen between Europe and the United States when, one day, Donald Trump leaves the White House.If a Democratic president wins, will transatlantic relations return to the previous point? They will probably improve. Good manners, diplomatic coordination, and the recognition of allies will return. But I do not think we will return to the place from where we started.A future president will be able to repair the relationship with Europe, but not restore the previous trust. Trump has not necessarily brought about the end of the Atlantic Alliance, but he has brought about the end of European dependence based on the certainty that the United States would always be there.The damage that is truly difficult to repair does not lie in tariffs, military agreements, or a specific position on Ukraine. All of this can be modified through decrees, treaties, and budgetary decisions. What is irreversible is the European discovery that American policy can make a one-hundred-and-eighty-degree turn every four years.Europe no longer distrusts only Trump. It distrusts the United States. Trump has been elected twice and his positions have a significant social base. Even if a Democratic president arrives and rebuilds relations, no one will be able to guarantee that four years later someone similar will not return.On the other hand, public opinion has already changed. A survey released by Reuters indicates that only 11% of Europeans in fifteen countries currently consider the United States an ally. In 2024, it was 22%. Another study by the Bertelsmann Foundation points out that 73% of European Union citizens believe that we should follow our own path. Relationships between countries depend on governments, but also on what their citizens feel towards one another.Distrust has already led to irreversible decisions. Europe is increasing its military spending, developing its own defense industry, and trying to reduce its strategic dependencies. Once these investments are made, Europe will have no reason to undo them, nor will any future American president be able to demand that it trust as it did before.But even the Democrats have changed. They continue to defend NATO and the transatlantic relationship, but they also demand that Europeans assume a larger share of their defense. The European Council on Foreign Relations warns that the historical bond with Europe has also weakened within the Democratic Party. Trump has accelerated the process, but he has not invented it entirely.Cooperation will continue. The United States and Europe will continue to trade, share intelligence information, and collaborate militarily. However, it will no longer be a relationship based on the security of unconditional protection, but rather on the convenience of each moment.

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