Most early analyses of Leo XIV suggest that the new pope will continue Bergoglio's reforms and that the more conservative sector of the conclave has been severely scalded. At the risk of being wrong, forgive me for disagreeing.
The speed of the election suggests that Prevost's candidacy had probably already been forged in the days leading up to the conclave, when outside influences were still possible. But it breaks a principle held for centuries: not to elect a pope from a political power in order to better guarantee the freedom of the Church. We could assume that the cardinals felt that Prevost's personality and biography—after all, more Peruvian than American—deserved an exception.
What if, in fact, the fact that he was from the United States played in the new pontiff's favor? There, the Church has experienced intense tensions between those who wanted to maintain Francis's social stance and welcome Latino immigrants—most of them Catholic—and those who branded the pope a communist. All this amidst litigation over child sexual abuse that is costing millions of dollars in compensation and seriously tarnishing the reputation of Catholicism in a predominantly Protestant country.
The opposition to Francis has had a powerful and well-funded focus in the United States. Its visible figure, Cardinal Raymond Burke, enraged by the possibility of divorced people receiving communion, stated in 2018 at a congress in Rome: "As history shows, it is possible for a Roman pontiff to fall into heresy or to fail in his first duty to safeguard and preserve the unity of the unity of the unity of the unity of the unity of the safeguard." Coming from a cardinal, these are no small words.
We now turn our attention to the famous image of Donald Trump dressed in pontifical robes—released by the White House itself!—and to his declarations that he would be the best possible pope. They have been seen as another blunder by a foolish president. But, with his boutadesTrump sends out signals that reach those who need to understand them. For anyone versed in the history of Christianity, this photograph evokes portraits of Henry VIII, the King of England who, when the Holy See refused him a divorce, opted to create the Anglican Church, separate from Rome. Are powerful American ultraconservative groups threatening a schism?
And this ties in with the change in tone in analysts' public statements following Francis's death. If at first there was debate about continuing the unfinished reforms, later there was a resounding insistence on the unity of the Church, with the understood premise, of course, that it is in danger because Bergoglio has gone too far.
In a conclave, a pope emerges who has the ability to gather support from diverse sources and for different reasons, reaching two-thirds of the votes. Leo XIV could be the man chosen to calm the North American Church and, with it, the most right-wing groups everywhere, without jeopardizing a substantial part of Pope Francis' legacy by renouncing its entirety. His election could be interpreted as the search for a point of intersection between the so-called conservatives and progressives to avoid one of the worst nightmares for Catholics: schism. A point of intersection that has surely also brought together the African cardinals, very attentive to the fight against inequality while, at the same time, preserving traditional morality, or the cardinals of the Vatican Curia, who know Prevost because he has held positions.
If my hypothesis is correct, Leo XIV will maintain, because it is his missionary spirit, the social dimension and the discourse on preferential attention to the poor that characterized the previous pontificate. Thus, he guarantees an essential fact for a good part of the cardinals created by Francis, who were in the majority in the conclave. But, at the same time, to maintain unity, he will not introduce significant changes in doctrine or canon law, which was the great fear of the most conservative cardinals, starting with those from his own country of origin.
It is not usual to talk about losers in a conclave. And yet, there are some. First, and as always, women, the divorced, and homosexuals, who, if my hypothesis is correct, will have to continue waiting for the Church to modernize. Second, the emerging Catholicism of Asia. While everyone was focused on the white smoke, Putin and Xi Jinping were meeting and strengthening ties in Moscow. We'll have to wait and see Leo XIV's policy toward China, which is expanding its influence around the world while simultaneously violently repressing Christians and other minorities. In this case, being of American origin won't help, but it seems clear that the conclave looked more to Washington than to Beijing.
