85 seconds separate us from the end of the world. This is the figure displayed a week ago by the Doomsday Clock. And it is the starkest diagnosis of all those made by the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists since they created the clock in 1947 as a powerful yet rigorous tool to represent our risk of self-destruction and communicate the need for decisive action to ensure the planet's survival.
While initially the clock only considered the nuclear threat (how long it would take to destroy our civilization in the event of nuclear war), for years it has also incorporated other geopolitical, economic, and environmental factors into its analysis. And this year, the climate of war, artificial intelligence, and the climate emergency have severely influenced the diagnosis. It must be emphasized: the threats are there, but the real danger is the lack of response to them.
In addition to these new criteria, however, the clock continues to incorporate the nuclear threat. And it is a threat that continues to grow. On the one hand, because, although arsenals have been decreasing, we still have more than 12,000 nuclear weapons in the world with an absolutely devastating capacity for destruction. On the other hand, because the number of deployed nuclear weapons—ready for use—increased in the last year. Finally, it must be borne in mind, as SIPRI reminds us, that almost all nuclear powers are engaged in projects to modernize and improve their nuclear arsenals.
Following the horrific Second World War and the discovery of the immense destructive power of nuclear weapons, the international community worked to bring weapons of mass destruction under control. Chemical and biological weapons were banned, but, with regard to nuclear weapons, diplomatic negotiations only resulted in the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), which, on the one hand, requires non-nuclear-weapon states to renounce the nuclear arms race and, on the other hand, asks nuclear powers to...
It is in this context that, during the Cold War and up to the present day, a series of bilateral agreements have been established between the two main nuclear powers, the United States and Russia (formerly the USSR), which have focused on reducing arsenals, limiting the number of deployed warheads, or reducing the number of systems. But the latest agreement in this long series, New START, It expired on Thursday And, for the moment, there is no planned replacement. It will be the first time since 1972 that we will not have a bilateral treaty in force. A worrying prospect, even more so considering the current context of wars and the clearly irresponsible and lawless actions of the United States and Russia.
The demise of this last nuclear arms control treaty has unfolded in several stages. Recently, Putin proposed a technical extension, while Trump showed no interest whatsoever. But in 2023, it was Putin who suspended the inspections stipulated by the treaty, and a year earlier, following the attack on Ukraine, Biden froze negotiations. Beyond this staged performance, it is clear that Trump and Putin are in complete agreement on the systematic attack against the international system and aspire to weaken all the constraints on their power, which they intend to wield with total impunity. Certainly, a world with more wars than before, with global leaders as disreputable as they are irresponsible, and a nuclear arsenal of more than 12,000 weapons at their disposal paints a dizzying picture. But not everything is alarming. This January marked the fifth anniversary of the entry into force of the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW), which civil society promoted to advance disarmament, supported by some governments, in the face of the international community's incapacity and the lack of will on the part of the nuclear powers. It may seem like a short time, but ten years ago no one gave the TPNW any chance, and despite the boycott by the major powers, it exists and is changing the global landscape. This is a lesson as necessary as it is useful in these times: because even though Trump and Putin practice blatant imperialism, it is worth remembering that imperialist logic already existed, and despite its presence, an active civil society and responsible institutions achieved new goals unthinkable just a few years ago. Faced with the dizzying 85 seconds of the Doomsday clock And with the end of New Start, it's clear that it's necessary to reactivate.
