Churchill and Fabius against Putin and Trump

A long stay in San Francisco has allowed me to closely follow the internal impact of the Maduro operation and witness examples of Trump's immigration policy: on the first day of operation at a friend's daycare, border patrol showed up to question the immigrant parents. I've also been able to observe what motivates this article: how Trump's European policy is perceived and what lessons we should learn.

There is a broad consensus—across all sectors of opinion, including Democrats—on two judgments: that Europe is a decadent conglomerate with weak governments and that it has taken advantage of the US for its defense. It has had it, but hasn't paid for it. These are judgments that should concern us because, with all the nuances one might wish to consider, they are well-founded assessments. From there, differences arise. Some respect, even envy, the civilization we have created. Others, like those who now govern, despise it. On defense issues, some would apply a classic and soft diplomacy. But those now in power will demand we hand over Greenland, applying the law of the strongest. Some former republicans will want to respect NATO principles and will grumble. But not firmly enough to prevent it. Those who have our best interests at heart, Democrats or Republicans, will focus their efforts on what both they and we consider the main issue: stopping Putin.

In my latest article He asserted that a battle for Greenland is lost for Europe. The relevant question is not whether Trump will want to seize it, but what Europe can do to prevent it. As he put it: we hold nothing. And we have weaknesses: Greenland is not part of the EU, like Ceuta and Melilla, and in 1917 Denmark sold the now-called US Virgin Islands to the US.. Drawing a red line would be a futile exercise. Impotence has consequences. I believe the conclusion will soon be reached that the handover must be negotiated. I hope we do so with dignity and while preserving the rights of its inhabitants.

This episode should make us acutely aware that this is a critical moment for Europe. We are on a path that will soon irrevocably fork. One path—may it be the one we don't take!—leads to a deepening of decline. The other, to getting back on track. I will outline the milestones of the right path:

1. I hope we react and that the attitudes of Trump and Putin spur a European patriotism that prevents the far right from gaining power in Spain, France, and Poland. This would mean that an emergency European board, composed of the European Commission, the United Kingdom, and the larger EU member states—let's say those with populations exceeding 30 million—would be both necessary and feasible.

2. For Europe, the essential defense issue is Ukraine. This is what deserves a red line: Putin must be stopped where he is now. It won't be easy given Trump's attitude, but it is possible. We have cards to play: the assets we possess, if used well, outweigh Putin's. But it behooves us to face the conflict with the spirit and epic vision of Churchill.

3. We are strengthening the EU by implementing the recommendations of the Letta and Draghi reports.

4. We are developing a coordinated plan for strategic autonomy in energy, communications (satellites), defense, and research (intellectual property). This process could last ten to fifteen years, during which we will be vulnerable.

5. We will have to face the conflict with Trump with determination and intelligence. Since a serious war with the US is not what we should anticipate, the spirit we need is not so much Churchill's as Fabian's. That is, following the example—introduced into modern political thought by the British Fabian Society at the end of the 19th century—of the Roman general Fabius, who saved Rome from Hannibal by buying time and avoiding frontal battles. He believed, rightly so—Hannibal's supply lines were extensive—that time was on his side. For some reasons, if we so choose (point 1), time can also work in Europe's favor. Our assets will not be as numerous as the US's, but Trump will have limitations. The axe-like arrogance he displays, both domestically and internationally, will increase external and internal resistance. It is within our power to ensure that he cannot prevent the consolidation of a strong Europe (points 2-4). Trump has been preparing for years and has taken the world by surprise. But time erodes that advantage. A vigorously pursued Fabian strategy may be the key to saving an independent Europe that can be a beacon of democracy and peace in the world.