Budgets: More deficit?

Revenues are growing. Spending is growing. The deficit remains. The 2026 budget projects non-financial revenues of €48.231 billion and total spending of €49.162 billion. The difference is small in relative terms (a deficit of 0.1%), but the economic message is more profound: in the midst of the expansionary phase of the cycle, we are still not generating a surplus. Spending increases by €9.126 billion compared to the last approved budget. That's a jump of 22.8%. Revenues, driven by the strong economic performance and the financing model, are also growing strongly, although the Catalan government doesn't present the comparative data with the same political forcefulness as it does for spending. The key is this: practically all the increase in revenue is absorbed by higher structural spending. In economic terms, this means that the permanent size of the public sector is increasing, taking advantage of the tailwinds of the economic cycle. Is this prudent?

The debt stands at around 28% of GDP. It could fall to 27% this year, or even to 22% if the FLA debt forgiveness materializes. But in the meantime, we pay €1.6 billion annually in interest. That's 2% of the budget—more than many entire departments. Interest doesn't build schools or reduce waiting lists. It's the price of the past. In basic economic theory, expansionary phases of the cycle are the time to generate a primary surplus, not to balance the budget, but to accumulate savings. If we don't do it when tax revenues are growing and employment is breaking records, when will we?

The political argument is understandable: there is social pressure, a strained housing market, and public services stretched to their limits. But the macroeconomic analysis compels us to look beyond the short term. If we consolidate structural spending with cyclical revenues, the future adjustment will be more painful. There is a fundamental debate that is rarely raised: do we want a Generalitat (Catalan government) that, in times of growth, aggressively reduces debt to free up future resources? Every percentage point of debt reduced means less interest tomorrow. And 1.6 billion euros annually in interest is equivalent, for example, to almost the entire budget allocated to active housing policies.

The problem isn't the 0.1% deficit. It's the missed opportunity to transform a favorable cycle into profound fiscal consolidation. A public sector can grow. But if it grows without generating savings during good times, it becomes trapped. And when the slowdown arrives—and it will—the alternatives will be to raise taxes, cut spending, or take on more debt. Debt doesn't disappear on its own. It has to be paid. And the sooner we truly begin to reduce it, the less it will mortgage our room for maneuver in the next decade.