Carmen Claudín: "Trump and Putin are alpha males involved in politics: they will want to decide on Ukraine"

BarcelonaUS President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed on Wednesday to begin negotiations on Ukraine "immediately." On the same day, US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth put pressure on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, warning that he could not demand a return to the 2014 borders or seek NATO membership. All of this opens up a very uncertain negotiating scenario for Kiev. We spoke with Cidob post-Soviet space researcher Carmen Claudín.

How do you assess Trump and Putin's announcement of negotiations?

— It is too early to make any assessments, because apart from the issues of the 2014 borders and non-joining NATO, which are the two points that we have always known were at stake, we have no further details. We do not even know who will participate in these negotiations. What can be said already is that, in any case, they will not be peace negotiations, at most they will be for a ceasefire. To talk about peace negotiations, at least the Ukrainians must be included from the outset, and also the presence of Europe.

Do you think they will want to resolve it between the United States and Russia alone?

— Yes. Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin are two alpha males involved in politics, and they will clearly want to be the ones to decide and deal. They are the strongest and this argument of strength is the main element on which this "sweet friendship" between Putin and Trump has been built. They will decide who sits at the negotiating table. What we do not know is what the Ukrainians will say and how much room for manoeuvre they have, especially since this depends largely on Europe, not only on the European Union as a whole but also on the member states, some of which are a terrible burden.

Europe has always been divided on the issue of Ukraine.

— There are countries in Europe that are a terrible burden. Like Hungary, together with Viktor Orbán, who is the only EU leader to have visited Moscow and met with Putin in a clear provocation to his European colleagues. But there is also Slovakia, the Czech Republic and Italy. And there is also the burden of forces within some states, like the extreme right within France, Germany or Spain.

A burden that is harming Ukraine in this process?

— Of course. And Moscow and Washington know it. The lack of European involvement in the negotiations is the fault of the Europeans themselves. On the one hand, the excessive reliance they have always had on the American umbrella in NATO, instead of Europeanising NATO, which has left them ill-equipped to guarantee the security of the continent. It would be irresponsible to say that Europe does not need more defence now; it is clear that peace is preferable, but the world has changed and we cannot bury our heads in the sand. And, on the other hand, Europe has always had an indecisive policy in its arms support for Ukraine for fear of the Russian reaction and its nuclear threat, and the weapons it has sent to Kiev have been insufficient and have always arrived late.

A position that Trump and Putin consider weak.

— Yes, they only understand the language of force. And if they had seen more forcefulness in Europe in sending arms or in making it clear that when the war is over Ukraine must join NATO, Ukraine would now be able to negotiate from a stronger position. Trump is a child with a toy, who kicks apart the Legos he no longer likes: NATO, the international rules of the game, the European security structure or trade agreements.

The US Secretary of Defense's words point to a cession of Crimea and perhaps even of the part of Donbas where pro-Russian groups rebelled in 2014, when he speaks of the 2014 borders.

— Russia will want to keep all the territory it currently has occupied. Russia will not accept an agreement that does not give it Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk, the two regions of Donbas in the east, but not only that, also in the south at least up to Mariupolo, a city that is very important for the Russians. It is too early to make predictions, but at least these areas occupied by Russia are currently red lines for Moscow. We will have to see what the response is in Ukraine, because there is a lot of fatigue from the war and a great desire for a way out, but they do not want to hear about surrender. We will have to see the reactions in the country, beyond Zelensky.

Do you think it is possible to give in so much to Putin?

— Putin's demands are very high, but perhaps Trump's advisers will advise him not to give in to a deal that would make him look weak. He is indifferent to Ukraine's surrender, but he will want to look strong. What gives us a clue as to what Russia will want is the statement published by the Russian presidency after the call between Putin and Trump. The text stresses the need to eliminate the "deep roots of the war," roots that Russia defines with two big lies: that the citizens of Russian origin in Donbas were threatened with physical and cultural destruction by the pro-Nazi government in Kiev, and that the West has deceived Russia and tested its promises. These two roots point to two demands: Crimea and Donbas up to Mariupolo at least, and Ukraine's neutrality within the framework of NATO.