Who will win Eurovision 2025? The 5 favorites of this year's edition

BarcelonaEurovision seems to have moved past last year’s tensions—largely sparked by Israel’s involvement in the Gaza conflict—and is on track for a smooth, uneventful edition this time around. Despite Israel’s continued participation, the calm surrounding the festival this year is helped by the fact that, for weeks, bookmakers have had a clear favorite: Sweden. In this article, we take a look at why the Nordic country is leading the pack ahead of Saturday’s contest in Basel, and explore which other contenders might still have a shot at stealing the spotlight.

The country that has won the Eurovision Song Contest the most times, along with Ireland, doesn't take the competition lightly. For this year's edition, they've chosen the Swedish-speaking Finnish group Kaj, known for their blend of humor and folk music. In fact, the song they'll be competing with, Bara Bada Bastu, has a significant dose of comedy and could almost be said to be the essential geeky offering of each edition: it's a celebration of Nordic sauna culture, an element that unites Sweden and Finland, the musicians' country of origin. Their Eurovision performance features dancers wrapped in sauna towels, as well as the wooden benches and cubes traditionally found in these spaces. The Eurovisionworld portal, which compiles data from all Eurovision betting houses, indicates that Sweden has a nearly 40% chance of winning based on this criterion.

One of the options that also sounds strong as a possible winner of Eurovision is Austria and the very dramatic and operatic Wasted love. The song is designed to allow Austrian singer JJ – the stage name of Johannes Pietsch – to showcase his full vocal range. Born in Vienna to an Austrian father and a Filipino mother, but raised in Dubai, this 23-year-old countertenor is a member of the Austrian State Opera and has also performed in reality shows like The Voice UK and Starmania, a very popular Austrian music competition. Wasted love, which blends pop and lyrical singing, speaks of the different emotions experienced during a heartbreak. Austria has won Eurovision twice—one of those victories was with the iconic Conchita Wurst—and is currently the second most likely candidate to win this year's competition.

Louane, the French representative, is not exactly unknown in her country. An actress and singer, her resume includes a César Award for Best New Actress for the film The Bélier family, where she played the daughter of a deaf couple. Before making the leap to film, she was already popular thanks to her participation in the second edition of the French version of The Voice, a program in which she reached the semi-finals. The song she will perform at Eurovision has a strong family background. It's called Maman (Mother) and is dedicated to her mother, who died in 2014 from cancer (in fact, the singer lost both parents when she was a teenager). France has high hopes for their entry this year, as evidenced by the fact that they made an international appearance during halftime of the Six Nations rugby match between the national team and Scotland at the Stade de France in Paris.

This year the Netherlands has the opportunity to recover from the bad taste left by last year's edition, in which its representative, Joost Klein, was expelled and could not perform in the final after being accused of having threatened a member of the festival's production team (Finally, the court dismissed the case.). This year the Dutch representative is Claude Kiambe, a singer born in Congo who moved to the Netherlands when he was 13. After passing through several reality shows such as The Voice Kids and Are you next, his musical career has now taken him to Eurovision. Claude will compete with the song C'est la vie, with which he recalls one of his mother's great teachings: to accept life as it is, with ups and downs.

Another of the strong competitors in this edition is Finland, which will be represented by Erika Vikman, who became known in her country thanks to the song Cicciolina, with which she unsuccessfully attempted to go to Eurovision in 2020. This Maneskin fan has presented a performance that plays with a sexualized image – she wears a corset and high latex boots – and elements of the world of striptease, like pole dancing bar. The proposal has not been without controversy: in an interview, Vikman stated that the European Broadcasting Union had suggested making some modifications to the performance because they found it "too sexual," and that costume changes had also been considered. However, shortly after these statements, Swedish public television, YLE, denied that any request had been made to modify the show. Even so, last week Vikman showed on social media how his team had had to modify the bodysuit she wears in the performance so that her buttocks were not exposed.

What are Spain's chances at Eurovision?

Spain’s track record at Eurovision has been a string of disappointments, with the sole exception of Chanel, who secured a third-place finish in 2022. The Benidorm Fest—a national selection process inspired by Italy’s Sanremo Festival and Sweden’s Melodifestivalen, both widely regarded as symbols of quality—has gradually lost momentum over the years. It has also faded as a cultural phenomenon, far from the excitement it sparked when Rigoberta Bandini and Chanel went head-to-head to represent Spain. This year, the task of stirring patriotic enthusiasm falls to Melody, a longtime performer who began her music career at just ten years old and has previously attempted to make it to Eurovision. She’s competing with Esa diva, a track that was reworked after Benidorm Fest to give it a more “international” appeal.

Despite the dedication shown by the Sevillian singer, bookmakers do not expect her to break into the top ten. The Eurovisionworld ranking currently places her entry in 14th position—roughly mid-table, as 26 countries will compete in the final. Based on rehearsals and her performance in the first semi-final, Spain’s entry—renamed The Diva Experience by RTVE—stands out for its high energy and visual intensity. The staging includes two costume changes: the first, a black outfit with a long train and a traditional Cordoban hat; the second, a silver bodysuit. The performance also features marble-textured stairs and elaborate LED visuals that mimic architectural structures on the big screens.

Aside from Chanel’s standout performance, the last time Spain made it into the top ten at the Eurovision final was eleven years ago, when Ruth Lorenzo placed tenth with Dancing in the Rain. Since then, Spain has consistently languished near the bottom of the rankings, with Chanel’s result being the only notable exception. The worst showing in the past decade came from Catalan singer Manel Navarro, who finished in last place.