What is the future of the Catholic Church?

RomeIn the heart of the Trastevere district, a row of lights hides the door of a very cozy restaurant. The structure, divided into three naves, preserves some vestiges of the ancient frescoes that decorated the walls and even the holy water sink. The space where waiters run around today to serve tourists was once the church of Santa Maria della Clemencia. Yes, also in Rome, and not far from the Vatican. Numerous temples have been converted into museums, libraries... and restaurants.

It's nothing new: The Catholic population in Europe is decreasing at the same rate as it is increasing in other parts of the world. The Old Continent lost nearly half a million Catholics in the last year; empty churches that contrast with those of the African continent, which already hosts 20% of the 1.4 billion Catholics in the world. In view of official data, it seems no coincidence that three of the papal candidates best positioned to succeed Francis are, in fact, African: Cardinal Peter Turkson (76), of Ghana; the Congolese prelate Fridolin Ambongo (65); and the Guinean Robert Sarah (79), one of the most authoritative voices on liturgical matters and leader of the traditionalist movement opposed to the reforms promoted by Francis, such as the blessing of same-sex couples.

Francis, the first Latin American pope, knew better than anyone that the future of the Church lay far from Rome, so during his pontificate he visited a dozen African countries—from Morocco to Egypt, to Kenya, Uganda, Congo, and South Sudan. However, he did not set foot in European capitals like Paris or Madrid. The Pope "who came from the end of the world" shifted the axis of Christianity to the peripheries of the planet.Africa and also Asia, where one in nine Catholics lives, have ceased to be mission territories and have become the heart of a community that is suffering a sharp decline and is threatened by growing secularization and the rise of other religions. This will be one of the main challenges it will have to face in the future, as As Francesco Sisci, a professor and expert on relations between China and the Vatican, recalls in the ARA.

"The Catholic Church needs to reflect on why so many people are abandoning Catholicism to convert to the Evangelical Church," warns the Sinologist expert. "Converting is a job, and if these people do it it's because they are interested in religion, but perhaps the Catholic Church is interested in Latin America. It's the same challenge that exists in Africa, where Catholics are growing, but Evangelicals are growing even more," he points out.

Francesco Sisci, who lived in Beijing for decades and who authored the first interview with a Pope in a Chinese media outlet in 2016, recognizes that The steps taken during Francis's pontificate to strengthen the influence of the Catholic Church in Asia are important., but warns that "if it doesn't grow, it could become irrelevant in the next hundred years."

The truth is that the Catholic Church is still a minority on the Asian continent. It barely represents 3% of the population, with the exception of South Korea, Vietnam, and especially the Philippines, the country with the most Catholics in Asia, where Francis was venerated almost like a rock star. This is not unusual in a place where "it is common to find chapels in shopping malls," explains Father Gregory Ramon D. Gastón, parish priest of the Pontifical Philippine College in Rome.

Francis' intentions

Francis visited Asia several times, most recently in the summer of 2024 – he spent time in Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, East Timor and Singapore – the longest apostolic journey of his pontificate. He also created several Asian cardinals and entrusted them with top-level roles in the Vatican Curia, the government of the Catholic Church. Among them is one of the favorites to succeed him, the Filipino of Chinese origin Luis Antonio Tagle (67), whom Francis considered the best intermediary to embrace the Catholics of the Far East.

The Pope who implored us to tear down walls and build bridges turned his compass towards the Church of the future, normalizing relations between Beijing and the Vatican Almost 70 years after Mao Zedong's communist China broke off diplomatic relations with the Holy See, the historic pastoral—not political—agreement reached in 2018 has allowed both sides to participate in the appointment of bishops. Until then, China's nearly 12 million Catholics had to choose between joining the state-controlled Patriotic Catholic Association or the underground churches loyal to the Pope and persecuted by the regime.

The problem is that the agreement, pushed through by Secretary of State Pietro Parolin, has been heavily criticized by a sector of the Church that believes Francis made too many concessions, and there is a risk that the next pope will halt them or even reverse them. "The situation is uncertain," acknowledges Francesco Sisci. "The agreement has been positive, but the Vatican perhaps expected more significant steps, and some cardinals believe it is worth breaking it. In my opinion, that would be a mistake."

The survival of the agreement, as well as that of the Church itself, will depend on whoever sits next on the Throne of St. Peter. "Benedict XVI and Francis have created a strong discontinuity between them, and such a radical swing makes me think that the Church perhaps has not yet found a balance," notes Sisci. "The cardinals still do not know what Church they want for the future."