What are the three names most likely to become the next Pope?

RomeRome and the entire Catholic world are experiencing shock at the announcement of the death of Pope Francis, who suffered a stroke when it seemed the Pope was recovering from the respiratory illness that kept him hospitalized for more than a month. The Vatican is now beginning a process it hasn't experienced since March 12, 2013, when the conclave met for the first time. following the resignation of Benedict XVI (Joseph Ratzinger).

At 88 years old and suffering from several serious illnesses, Pope Francis's health was fragile. Numerous hospitalizations in recent years have made him a target of speculation, especially since 2021. He underwent surgery for diverticular stenosis in the colon, during which 33 centimeters of intestine were removed. On that occasion, he remained hospitalized for ten days. Months later, the pontiff confessed that the general anesthesia affected him greatly and that he was still suffering from its effects. He added: "I know there have been meetings between prelates who thought the Pope was more seriously ill than was being said. They were preparing for the conclave. Some wanted me dead."

The names that resonate the most

In any case, following the latest hospital admission, speculation about his successor and the machinery of the conclave—the meeting in the Sistine Chapel of up to 120 cardinals, all under the age of eighty—also began.

If there's one name that appears in all the polls, it's that of the Filipino Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle, Archbishop of Manila. The Pope approached him with the Vatican by appointing him Prefect of the Congregation for the Evangelization of Peoples, formerly known as Propaganda Fide, in 2019. With a mother of Chinese origin, analysts consider him the most likely candidate to be the next occupant of the Chair of St. Peter. If this prediction were to be confirmed, Bergoglio would become, after his death, the best intermediary for building definitive bridges with the Catholics of Asia. Tagle is charismatic and shares Francis's progressive vision of the Church.

What could work against him would be his age: he will turn 68 in June, which in principle would imply that his papacy could potentially be very long. On the other hand, in a global context of radicalization towards the right and the extreme right, it would not seem very prudent to think that an institution like the Catholic Church can abstract itself from the same current that manifests itself both in Washington and Buenos Aires and so many European capitals.

Only a couple of years older than Tagle, Pietro Parolin is another of those considered papal candidates. He was Francis' number two as Secretary of State at the Vatican, since his appointment in 2013 to replace the also Italian Tarcisio Bertone, Benedict XVI's right-hand man, who was removed when he was implicated in the scandal of leaked documents in the so-called Vatileaks case. Parolin is the second-youngest Vatican Secretary of State in the history of the Holy See, behind Cardinal Eugenio Pacelli, who later became Pope Pius XI.

His diplomatic career has taken him to Asia and the Middle East, and he has been actively involved in the delicate relations between the Holy See and countries such as Israel, Vietnam, and North Korea. In 2009, he was appointed Hugo Chávez's nuncio to Venezuela. And for the past three years, he has been Francis's choice to attempt to mediate between Russia and Ukraine. In an increasingly turbulent world, his experience could restore to the Church of Rome the geopolitical influence it seems to have lost in recent years.

In recent months, however, the name of Fridolin Ambongo, cardinal of the Democratic Republic of Congo, also seems to have gained considerable traction. He is the only one of those mentioned to have criticized some of the reforms promoted by Francis, such as the blessing of same-sex couples. His rejection of Bergoglio's new orientation made him one of the leaders of the conservatives, led by German Cardinal Gerhard Müller. The most prominent voices in this sector, Ambongo and Müller, had redoubled their attacks on Francis, protected by a web of propaganda media that helped spread their messages.

138 cardinal electors

Although they appear increasingly isolated within Vatican structures and a minority in a conclave, traditionalists remain very present, especially through the powerful United States Conference of Bishops, which has gained new momentum with the arrival of Donald Trump to the White House. Given the number of cardinals under eighty years of age eligible to vote in a conclave to elect Francis's successor, 110 of these have been appointed during his pontificate, representing approximately 79% of the total number of electors. Given the number of cardinals from the College of Cardinals, including cardinals from 71 countries, any prediction is quite complex.