Western sanctions boost Russians' self-esteem: "We've learned to value our country."

MoscowOne of the objectives of Western sanctions against Russia At the beginning of the invasion of Ukraine, apart from isolating it internationally and limiting its military capacity, the aim was to provoke discontent among the oligarchs and the population that would destabilize support for Vladimir Putin's regime. None of this has happened.

According to the latest barometer from the Levada Center, an independent sociological research institute, only 26% of Russians are concerned about the sanctions. This is the lowest figure since the first measures against the Russian economy began to be applied in 2014 following the annexation of Crimea. In 2022, with the outbreak of the war, the percentage of the population concerned reached almost 50%, but it did not even reach the levels of 2014. Moreover, the vast majority of those surveyed, 86%, affirm that the sanctions have not caused personal problems for them or for them. Only 12% say the opposite, a percentage that has been declining since 2022, when they represented almost 30%.

These figures vary greatly depending on the region and social environment. As Denis Volkov, director of the Levada Center, explains to ARA, "the urban and Westernized classes, those who live in large cities, buy Western products, and travel to Europe, have probably felt the effect the most." In Moscow, for example, it is much easier than in rural areas to find people who have noticed the impact of the sanctions.

"It's clear that they have affected me," says Svetlana. "Now I have to pay double or triple for medicine produced in Europe or for food for special diets." Angela, who lives on the outskirts of the capital, says she felt the negative impact most strongly with the first sanctions, in 2014. "At that time, many European delicacies disappeared from stores, and there was a real shortage of good products, which lasted for a year or two," she recalls.

For young people, the punishment for the Russian economy hit their leisure time. "The first thing that impacted me personally was the closure of the PlayStation store," says Ksenia. Streaming music services also hit hard. "For me, who listens exclusively to foreign artists, it was an inconvenience," she says.

An annoying cross-generational consequence among the wealthy classes is the limitations on travel. "It's become difficult and expensive to go on vacation abroad," explains Angela. "Until 2014, we went every year; we didn't even think about spending our vacation in Russia." Svetlana's fear, however, is the reliability of the Russian airline sector, which is one of the most sanctioned. "If I have to fly, I always choose an international airline," she warns. That's why this Friday the Kremlin insisted that one of the main demands in the United States is the lifting of sanctions on Aeroflot, Russia's main airline.

IKEA, the most missed

Without a doubt, the brand that Russians miss the most is Ikea. 58% of Muscovites surveyed by the Levada Center indicate they would like to see it return to Russia. This is followed by Microsoft, Visa, Adidas, McDonald's, Coca-Cola, Nike, and Zara.

The urban-rural divide is also noticeable here. Volkov recalls an anecdote from a village beyond the Urals: "I asked them if they would like McDonald's back, and they replied: 'We never had one here, so what are you talking about?'" For her part, Svetlana says she doesn't belong to the Russian chains that have taken the place of Western brands and have vampirized their aesthetics and offerings. "It's my personal boycott," she concludes.

However, the sanctions have not only affected the middle classes. Restrictions on the Russian economy have led to inflation currently exceeding 10% year-on-year as a result of disrupted supply chains, the fall of the ruble, and rising production costs. However, in neighborhoods on the outskirts of Moscow, residents do not directly associate rising prices with the sanctions and instead attribute the blame, more generally, to the war or politicians.

From resignation to self-esteem

Be that as it may, the Kremlin's narrative is radically optimistic. Putin has repeatedly stated that the sanctions have become "a catalyst for positive structural change." Even those who initially suffered the shock of the first sanctions now view them differently. "Many foreign companies left, but Russian companies' business has boomed in many fields," explains Ksenia. Angela adds that "there is now a large selection of Russian products, and quality has improved" and warns: "If Western brands return, they will not be competitive, especially because of the price."

Economists in the Kremlin's orbit also endorse this view. Aleksander Dinkin, president of the Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, believes that "the main surprise for the West has been the fantastic stability of the Russian economy," while Nikita Asimov, rector of the Higher School of Economics, concludes that "the sanctions have only made the Russian economy stronger and more resilient." The reality is that Russian GDP grew by 2.1% in 2022, 3.6% in 2023, and between 3.2% and 4% in 2024, mainly due to the conversion to a war economy and the opening of new markets.

However, it's not all roses and violets. These days, the Russian press is warning of the potential disastrous consequences of the country's dependence on Russian oil sales to China in a trade war scenario. The head of the Russian Central Bank, Elvira Nabiulina, admits that "they are preparing for these risks" if there is a global drop in oil prices as a result of a global economic slowdown. Although some Kremlin insiders initially celebrated Russia's exclusion from tariffs, analysts warn that it could be catastrophic because oil and gas revenues are expected to account for 27% of the federal budget this year.

Furthermore, despite the siren calls that periodically appear in pro-government media, announcing plans for the return of several Western companies, the Russian Central Bank has already made it clear that, for the moment, it is not working with the prospect of sanctions relief or the reestablishment of European companies. Putin has also warned that, even if the sanctions are lifted, "nothing will ever be the same again" and has assumed that the United States will continue to seek ways to stifle them. Isolation has given way to resignation, and resignation to self-esteem. "We're beginning to value our country more," Angela concludes. "We live here and no one is waiting for us anywhere; that's our home."