Trump, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe: The crisis that could bring the EU closer to China

BarcelonaMore than 35 years after the fall of the Berlin Wall, the winds of change are blowing again in Eastern Europe. The bloc of post-communist countries has historically been Europe's staunchest defender of an ironclad alliance between the continent and the United States. However, in recent weeks we have witnessed unprecedented scenes. Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski has publicly clashed with Elon Musk over the war in Ukraine. Estonian High Representative Kaja Kallas of the EU said, after the fight between Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelensky, that "the free world needs a new leader" to replace Washington. Until a few weeks ago, no one would have imagined an Eastern European leader so openly criticizing the United States.

Eastern Europe has always been strongly Atlanticist for geopolitical reasons: the worldview of Eastern Europeans is conditioned by their geographical proximity to Russia and the history of imperialism in the region – again, confirmed by the invasion of Ukraine–. However, unlike Moscow, China is neither a priority nor inherently hostile actor for Eastern Europe. Before the war, the region had a pragmatic and open economic relationship with Beijing. Putin's invasion changed everything: Eastern Europe stopped perceiving China as an independent actor and began to see it through the lens of its relationship with Russia, with whom it had a strong relationship. Beijing maintains close diplomatic and economic relations.

In the context of the war in Ukraine and US-China tensions, a transactionalist view also proliferated, one that, in exchange for Washington's support against Russia, Europeans should be tougher on Beijing. All of this has significantly contributed to the worsening of relations between the European Union and China in recent years.

But the axis formed by the United States and Eastern Europe is cracking. In recent weeks, we have seen direct criticism of Washington from regional leaders. Instead of talking about strengthening transatlantic security, they now speak of European strategic autonomy. There is clear disenchantment with Trump's pro-Russian turn. But the discontent had already begun with Biden, when he imposed semiconductor restrictions on Eastern European states like Poland.

The Eastern European bloc has been one of the main obstacles to a rapprochement between the EU and China. Trump's disdain for Ukrainians will likely not improve Eastern Europeans' view of Beijing. But a distancing from Washington would weaken the geopolitical argument that it must be tough on China to retain US support. If Washington can no longer be relied upon, the world becomes more hostile and uncertain for Europeans. The doors are opening to new players. China will try to seize this opportunity. The United States, with its botched foreign policy, may end up not only losing its Western allies but also encouraging unexpected closeness between Europe and China, between which most bridges had been burned.