Trump focuses first on China
Donald Trump's decision to approve a 90-day pause on tariffs for all countries except China marks the first reversal by the US president in his escalation and the realization that he could not wage war all over the world at once, as this threatened to trigger a stock market crash. Washington is therefore recalibrating its policy and is now focusing on punishing China, which it has approved tariffs of 125% after Beijing raised its tariffs to 84%.
It should be noted, however, that Trump is not abandoning his objectives, but is simply changing his strategy to isolate China and prevent the creation of a united front against the United States. What Trump is seeking the day after the tariffs go into effect is to open a period of country-by-country negotiations, which is what he has always sought. However, it should be noted that in the meantime, the basic tariff of 10% remains in place as a reminder that he can raise them again at any time.
What consequences the clash between Washington and Beijing will have for the global economy remains to be seen, but some companies in the United States are already feeling the effects. A small businessman from Boise, Idaho, has explained to X That overnight, the tariff on importing toys from China has gone from $26,000 a year to $346,000. And this isn't even counting the latest increases approved by Trump. The fact is that tariffs aren't paid by countries, as some might think, sensing Trump, but by importing companies and, by extension, consumers. What will this businessman who manufactured his toys in China do? Well, he'll probably have to close. Obviously, this will be a problem for Chinese manufacturers, who will lose many customers, but who is better prepared in the long run to withstand the adverse economic conditions of a trade war? The United States or China, which is a dictatorship where human rights are not a priority and the population is accustomed to deprivation and obeying without protest?
In this context, Spanish President Pedro Sánchez's visit to Southeast Asia and China could not be more timely, as the tariff war unleashed by Donald Trump is now forcing the European Union to rethink its relationship with Beijing, as they suddenly find themselves on the same side. But the European Union now faces a major dilemma: does it play along with Trump's game and also pause the tariffs he approved this Wednesday, or does it align with China and opt for a hard line? European trade logic suggests that Europe will choose the former and try to use these 90 days to negotiate with Trump's United States.
It is expected, however, that Washington will also want to condition the EU's relationship with China and prevent a rapprochement between the two actors. Europe is caught in the middle of a struggle between two giants battling for global hegemony and seeking not so much the common good of the planet as their own interests. Any step taken, however, must take into account that Trump is now seeking to defeat China, so he can then come and settle scores with the EU.