The world in the hands of Putin and Trump
The world held its breath during the hour and a half that Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin held talks this Tuesday to decide the future of Ukraine. There was cause for concern, since Trump began the day giving Benjamin Netanyahu the green light to break the ceasefire and resume savage bombing of Gaza, and now he's immersed in his own country in a crusade against the courts of justice. The result of that first conversation between the two was a minimal agreement that includes a 30-day truce in attacks on energy infrastructure and a prisoner exchange. We will have to see how the talks evolve in the coming days, supposedly to seek a total truce, but from the outset it is bad news that the world is hanging on the negotiations between two leaders with authoritarian tendencies like these.
From the outset, the wishful thinking Trump, who trusted that he would resolve the Ukrainian conflict with a call to his friend Putin. Nothing could be further from the truth. The Russian president remains firm in his conditions for truly moving toward a peace agreement, and they are completely unacceptable for Ukraine. For example, in exchange for halting the bombing, he demands that Ukraine stop receiving European military aid, that US intelligence stop providing it with information, and that Zelensky stop recruiting. These three conditions would leave Ukraine completely defenseless against Russian military power.
Therefore, with Tuesday's minimal agreement, Putin has managed to buy time and not break up the fight, but there is no reason to think he will end up giving up his territorial objectives in Ukraine. Then will be the moment of truth for Donald Trump, who will have to decide whether to pressure Moscow, for example with economic sanctions, or simply abandon Ukraine to its fate, which is what the Europeans and Zelensky himself fear.
It is difficult to imagine what Trump or his advisors have in mind, since at the moment he seems to be playing at practicing a kind of geopolitics of chaos, where one day he presents himself as a candidate for the Nobel Peace Prize and the next day as a warlord promising hell on earth. What is evident is that Putin is an old cat and already demonstrated during Trump's previous term that he is capable of manipulating the White House occupant according to his own interests.
In any case, Europe should take advantage of the impasse now opening up to coordinate a diplomatic response and also accelerate plans to improve its operational military capability. In this regard, the constitutional reform approved by the Bundestag, which will allow Germany to exceed its debt limits to invest in defense and infrastructure, is good news. The world is changing very rapidly, and it is necessary to move quickly. Otherwise, Putin and Trump will divide the continent as if NATO didn't exist and the terrible Second World War had never happened.
